90 Peconic Ave · Shelter Island Heights, NY 11964

$4,800,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,325 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1985 1.12 ac lot $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Held by a single family for nearly a century, 90 Peconic Avenue carries the kind of history that can't be manufactured - a deep sense of place, of summers lived well, of a waterfront that has remained unchanged while the world around it evolved. Custom built by Reich Eklund in 1985 and thoughtfully maintained, this classic Shelter Island shingled beach house sits on a level acre along one of the Island's most coveted stretches of waterfront -190 feet of Silver Beach shoreline, fully bulkheaded, with a private dock and unobstructed sunset views that define the property at every hour. Deceptively generous in scale, the five-bedroom, 3.5-bath residence features an open floor plan with every ro

Key facts

• Private dock
• Expansive side lawn
• Accessory structure

Tags

• PRIVATE DOCK
• UNOBSTRUCTED SUNSET VIEWS
• FULL WATERSIDE BALCONY
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• EXPANSIVE SIDE LAWN
• ACCESSORY STRUCTURE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with annual fee of $75 covering common area maintenance; Association amenities: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Driveway parking; Garage door opener; Oversized garage; Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Propane available; Water connected; Septic tank; Cable available; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; Three or more levels
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Garden; Landscaped grounds; Level and cleared lot; Private setting; Wooded areas; Waterfront with views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Electric oven; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms present (includes a first-floor bedroom)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Double-pane windows; Deck, patio, porch, and wrap-around porch; Basement (full, unfinished, with storage space); Grip-accessible features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $4.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26k ($313k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($75k rent vs $4.80M).
• Recommended offer: $4.73M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,120 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelter Island Union Free School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $128k of equity ($33k loan paydown + $94k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1.34M cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$324k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($4.73M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,728,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.28%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $1,983,204
• Equity at exit: $1,885,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $5,068,401
• Equity at exit: $2,708,509

Cash invested: $1,344,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11964

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $75,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$25,172
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6,000 /mo · $72,000/yr
• Insurance: −$2,000
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$15,750
• Net cashflow: $26,072

Break-even live

Break-even rent $41,997

Max offer price $4,800,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,200,000
• Closing costs: $144,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Montclair Ave Shelter Island, NY	6.0	4.5	4600	$75,000	$16.30	22d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,800,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $4,800,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $4,800,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $900,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$268,875
• − Property taxes: −$72,000
• − Insurance: −$24,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$72,000
• − Management: −$72,000
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$139,636
• Taxable income: $251,417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60,340
• After-tax cash flow: $252,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelter Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3626640
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,456
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7365
• State rank: #546 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shelter Island Heights

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1120
• US rank: #23056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelter Island Heights, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 21% Native American 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Romanian 5% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Current HPI: 476.2348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+26.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $4,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-03 Price Changed $3,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-27 Price Changed $3,650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-25 Price Changed $3,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-10 Listed $3,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-01 Price Changed $3,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-22 Listed $3,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid