CD-48G9006+4FT Plan · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 889 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Price Improvement! This beautiful three bedroom, two bathroom home is the perfect place for you to enjoy the type of lifestyle you have always dreamed of. Relax and unwind in the master suite after a long day and enjoy the en suite bathroom with spacious shower for convenience. With plenty of upgraded counter space, cabinets, and closets in every bedroom, the storage space in this home is seemingly endless! The designated dining area maximizes your entertaining possibilities. The additional two bedrooms receive plenty of natural light and your guests will feel right at home when they come to visit. Call us to schedule a tour of your new home today.

Key facts

• Listed 888 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.9% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 889 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 889 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.66%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,548
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $35,876
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $445	+0% $399	+5% $352	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $332	+0% $399	+5% $465	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $433	base $399	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	13d	1	0.27mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	11d	1	0.28mi
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.29mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	4d	1	0.44mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 889 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 886 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 885 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 884 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 883 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 881 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 877 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 876 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 875 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,900 Active 872 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 871 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 870 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 869 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 868 DOM
15. 2024-02-03
    price $134,900 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Price Improvement! This beautiful three bedroom, two bathroom home is the perfect place for you to enjoy the type of lifestyle you have always dreamed of. Relax and unwind in the master suite after a long day and enjoy the en suite bathroom with spacious shower for convenience. With plenty of upgraded counter space, cabinets, and closets in every bedroom, the storage space in this home is seemingly endless! The designated dining area maximizes your entertaining possibilities. The additional two bedrooms receive plenty of natural light and your guests will feel right at home when they come to visit. Call us to schedule a tour of your new home today.

16. 2024-01-14
    listed $139,900 Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Price Improvement! This beautiful three bedroom, two bathroom home is the perfect place for you to enjoy the type of lifestyle you have always dreamed of. Relax and unwind in the master suite after a long day and enjoy the en suite bathroom with spacious shower for convenience. With plenty of upgraded counter space, cabinets, and closets in every bedroom, the storage space in this home is seemingly endless! The designated dining area maximizes your entertaining possibilities. The additional two bedrooms receive plenty of natural light and your guests will feel right at home when they come to visit. Call us to schedule a tour of your new home today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $2,801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $4,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home boasts a fresh exterior, modern interior, and ample storage, making it an ideal choice for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $134,900 Zillow
• 2024-01-14 Listed $139,900 Zillow