1770 Old Hickory · Shirley, AR 72153

$139,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Built 1985 1.50 ac lot $108/sqft · 71% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home in the country with extra buildings for storage or small farm animals. 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a roomy kitchen, lots of pantry space, new main bathroom and pretty barn doors leading to den. This home has a storm cellar and fruit trees, a big magnolia tree and lots of shade trees. There is a sunroom on the front and nice screened in porch in the back for enjoying your coffee, the wildlife and the sounds of nature.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Sunroom
• Fruit trees

Tags

• EXTRA BUILDINGS
• STORM CELLAR
• FRUIT TREES
• MAGNOLIA TREE
• SUNROOM
• SCREENED IN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($211/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#261 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($966 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $105,523 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,579
• List price: $139,750
• Delta: 71.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $47,809
• Equity at exit: $94,675

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $138,206
• Equity at exit: $177,911

Cash invested: $39,130 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72153

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$733
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $299/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $139,750

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $57	+0% $18	+5% $-22	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-24	+0% $18	+5% $59	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $53	base $18	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,938
• Closing costs: $4,192
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $139,750 Under Contract 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,750 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,750 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,750 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,750 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,750 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,750 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,750 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,750 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,750 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,750 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-04-16
    price $139,750 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Great home in the country with extra buildings for storage or small farm animals. 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a roomy kitchen, lots of pantry space, new main bathroom and pretty barn doors leading to den. This home has a storm cellar and fruit trees, a big magnolia tree and lots of shade trees. There is a sunroom on the front and nice screened in porch in the back for enjoying your coffee, the wildlife and the sounds of nature.

13. 2026-03-29
    listed $139,900 New Listing 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Great home in the country with extra buildings for storage or small farm animals. 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a roomy kitchen, lots of pantry space, new main bathroom and pretty barn doors leading to den. This home has a storm cellar and fruit trees, a big magnolia tree and lots of shade trees. There is a sunroom on the front and nice screened in porch in the back for enjoying your coffee, the wildlife and the sounds of nature.

14. 2026-03-29
    historical

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Great home in the country with extra buildings for storage or small farm animals. 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a roomy kitchen, lots of pantry space, new main bathroom and pretty barn doors leading to den. This home has a storm cellar and fruit trees, a big magnolia tree and lots of shade trees. There is a sunroom on the front and nice screened in porch in the back for enjoying your coffee, the wildlife and the sounds of nature.

15. 2025-11-03
    listed $139,900 New Listing
16. 2025-10-20
    historical
17. 2025-09-17
    price $137,000
18. 2025-08-01
    status Back on Market
19. 2025-06-30
    status Under Contract
20. 2025-03-24
    listed $139,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $299 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 199.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,828
• − Property taxes: −$299
• − Insurance: −$699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$4,065
• Taxable loss: −$2,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$541
• After-tax cash flow: $753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #18846

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,982
• Population (ZIP): 3,982

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.76%
• Current HPI: 273.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+0.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $139,750 CARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $137,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $139,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $299 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.