25 Oceano Pl · Novato, CA 94949

$399,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2011 257 sqft lot Est $319k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2011 and a rare find in Los Robles Mobile Home Park, this modern manufactured home offers the look, feel, and functionality of a single-family residence, but at an affordable price. Ideally located in southern Novato, this 55+ park offers residents outstanding amenities including a clubhouse, swimming pool, spa, shuffleboard, and a vibrant calendar of social activities. The home features soaring vaulted ceilings, an open floor plan, and an abundance of natural light. Built by Champion Homes, a respected national manufacturer known for quality construction, this home was designed with energy efficiency in mind. Features such as dual-pane windows, insulation, efficient climate contro

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Spa
• Swimming pool

Tags

• LOS ROBLES MOBILE HOME PARK
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• SPA
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Los Robles Mobile Home Park
• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease in effect (monthly land lease amount payable)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a mobile home park; Park senior community
• Construction: Composition roof; Made by Champion Home Builders (Cal Advantage)
• Exterior features: Front landscaping and miscellaneous landscaping; Porch; Uncovered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Microwave; Laminate counters; Pantry cabinet; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Gas log fireplace with insert in the living room; Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in an interior laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-62/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $398k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Meadow Park (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 531 students, 58% FRL); Novato High (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 1,458 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,658 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,780
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
805 Las Palmas	0.26mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+3%)	6mo	$420,000	$324	73
3 Oceano Pl	0.08mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+7%)	11mo	$340,000	$253	71
311 San Sebastian Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+7%)	15mo	$358,600	$267	66
504 Vera Cruz Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-11%)	8mo	$355,000	$317	63
110 Ensenada Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-13%)	10mo	$265,000	$241	62
708 Seville Way	0.26mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+10%)	5mo	$351,000	$252	62
524 Vera Cruz Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+9%)	12mo	$405,000	$296	61
715 Seville Way	0.25mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+14%)	6mo	$385,000	$267	54
313 San Sebastian Way	0.12mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+14%)	14mo	$170,000	$118	54
502 Vera Cruz Ave	0.14mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+14%)	14mo	$332,000	$231	53
410 San Paulo Way	0.17mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+14%)	15mo	$242,775	$169	51
223 Barcelona Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-14%)	20mo	$202,000	$187	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-70,842
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-85,258
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $891/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,953

Max offer price $398,092

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $108	+0% $-5	+5% $-118	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-122	+0% $-5	+5% $111	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $96	base $-5	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
450 Entrada Dr Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	12d	1	0.34mi
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	0d	1	0.56mi
235 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,225	$2.69	0d	1	0.66mi
98 Gann Way Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1428	$3,950	$2.77	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $399,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $420,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $420,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $420,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,032 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,141/yr (+$178/mo · 240.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$891
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,829
• − Management: −$2,829
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$7,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,714
• After-tax cash flow: $1,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $420,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $891 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.