Connect Plan · Ocala, FL 34482

$329,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · SingleFamily · 650 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Home, Single Story Design, Exceptionally Large Kitchen with Expansive Kitchen Island, Spacious Great Room, Covered Lanai, Large Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet, Den/Office, Optional Guest Suite, Optional SmartSpace™, Optional Screen Enclosure at Covered Lanai, Optional Multi-Slide Door at Great Room, This Plan is Modeled at this Community and Sunstone & Polo Club, DesignJoy® - Our Curated Package Program; https://online. flippingbook.com/view/ 402362048/

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 650 days

🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $376,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fessenden Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 417 students, 79% FRL); Howard Middle School (math 47% / reading 50%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 980 students, 60% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,612/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 282% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 650 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,223 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 650 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.15%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,800
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -12.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4811 NW 39th Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-1%)	2mo	$317,665	$172	82
5260 NW 46th Lane Rd	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (-3%)	1mo	$300,000	$165	73
4936 NW 39th Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-1%)	22mo	$322,205	$175	72
5464 NW 43rd St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,862 (0%)	23mo	$450,000	$242	71
5654 NW 37th Lane Rd	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (+5%)	4mo	$440,000	$225	58
5567 NW 45th Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,023 (+9%)	5mo	$412,990	$204	55
3901 NW 49th Ct	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,666 (-10%)	20mo	$315,000	$189	52
4263 NW 55th Ct	0.31mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,020 (+8%)	18mo	$410,000	$203	50
4361 NW 55th Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,038 (+10%)	19mo	$320,000	$157	46
4043 NW 44th Cir	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-13%)	3mo	$259,990	$161	43
5466 NW 35th Lane Rd	0.47mi	3/3.0	2,136 (+15%)	13mo	$575,000	$269	39
4143 NW 44th Cir	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-13%)	22mo	$286,990	$178	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-81,627
• Equity at exit: $56,182

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-52,399
• Equity at exit: $32,579

Cash invested: $105,504 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,976
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$471 /mo · $5,652/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,296

Max offer price $298,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-280	-5% $-410	+0% $-540	+5% $-671	+10% $-801
Rent	-10% $-747	-5% $-644	+0% $-540	+5% $-437	+10% $-334
Rate	-1.0pp $-351	-0.5pp $-444	base $-540	+0.5pp $-638	+1.0pp $-737

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,200
• Closing costs: $11,304
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4122 NW 48th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1816	$1,999	$1.10	15d	1	0.19mi
4932 NW 39th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,700	$1.33	23d	1	0.19mi
4452 NW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	3.0	2362	$2,800	$1.19	23d	1	0.30mi
4958 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1998	$3,000	$1.50	23d	1	0.32mi
4859 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1666	$2,495	$1.50	23d	1	0.33mi
5252 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.34mi
5227 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.36mi
4743 NW 39th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	23d	1	0.36mi
4342 NW 55th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,600	$1.20	15d	1	0.37mi
5530 NW 40th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,000	$1.23	23d	1	0.40mi
4395 NW 55th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,700	$1.46	23d	1	0.41mi
5254 NW 43rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,500	$2.03	23d	1	0.42mi
5423 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$3,200	$1.93	23d	1	0.43mi
5347 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,550	$1.64	23d	1	0.45mi
4110 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,400	$1.49	15d	1	0.47mi
4111 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,300	$1.53	15d	1	0.47mi
5191 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,400	$1.82	23d	1	0.48mi
5048 NW 35th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,900	$1.22	15d	1	0.49mi
5521 NW 45th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,600	$1.40	15d	1	0.49mi
5416 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,300	$1.45	15d	1	0.50mi
5358 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	23d	1	0.52mi
5237 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$4,500	$2.90	23d	1	0.53mi
4078 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	23d	1	0.53mi
5293 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$2,450	$1.58	23d	1	0.54mi
3335 NW 52nd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1318	$2,500	$1.90	23d	1	0.55mi
5375 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1565	$2,350	$1.50	23d	1	0.55mi
5471 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,900	$2.20	23d	1	0.55mi
5389 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$2,300	$1.48	23d	1	0.56mi
5333 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,300	$1.68	15d	1	0.57mi
5361 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,500	$1.90	23d	1	0.57mi
3384 NW 54th Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1722	$2,300	$1.34	23d	1	0.58mi
3441 NW 56th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	3.0	2328	$2,800	$1.20	23d	1	0.63mi
5353 N US Highway 27 Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1169	$2,045	$1.75	23d	1	0.79mi
5391 NW 55th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,650	$1.24	23d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $329,990 Active 650 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,990 Active 647 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,990 Active 646 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,990 Active 645 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,990 Active 644 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,990 Active 642 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 641 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,990 Active 639 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,990 Active 638 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,990 Active 637 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,990 Active 636 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 632 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 631 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 629 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,990 Active 628 DOM
16. 2025-10-13
    price $329,990 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    55+ Home, Single Story Design, Exceptionally Large Kitchen with Expansive Kitchen Island, Spacious Great Room, Covered Lanai, Large Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet, Den/Office, Optional Guest Suite, Optional SmartSpace™, Optional Screen Enclosure at Covered Lanai, Optional Multi-Slide Door at Great Room, This Plan is Modeled at this Community and Sunstone & Polo Club, DesignJoy® - Our Curated Package Program; https://online. flippingbook.com/view/ 402362048/

17. 2025-04-22
    price $352,990 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    55+ Home, Single Story Design, Exceptionally Large Kitchen with Expansive Kitchen Island, Spacious Great Room, Covered Lanai, Large Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet, Den/Office, Optional Guest Suite, Optional SmartSpace™, Optional Screen Enclosure at Covered Lanai, Optional Multi-Slide Door at Great Room, This Plan is Modeled at this Community and Sunstone & Polo Club, DesignJoy® - Our Curated Package Program; https://online. flippingbook.com/view/ 402362048/

18. 2024-09-09
    listed $339,990 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    55+ Home, Single Story Design, Exceptionally Large Kitchen with Expansive Kitchen Island, Spacious Great Room, Covered Lanai, Large Primary Bedroom with Walk-In Closet, Den/Office, Optional Guest Suite, Optional SmartSpace™, Optional Screen Enclosure at Covered Lanai, Optional Multi-Slide Door at Great Room, This Plan is Modeled at this Community and Sunstone & Polo Club, DesignJoy® - Our Curated Package Program; https://online. flippingbook.com/view/ 402362048/

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,107
• − Property taxes: −$5,652
• − Insurance: −$1,884
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,508
• − Management: −$2,508
• − Depreciation: −$10,961
• Taxable loss: −$13,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $352,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-09 Listed $339,990 Zillow