4781 Orange Grove Blvd #3 · Lochmoor Waterway Estates, FL 33903

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 741 sqft · Condo public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1981 $383/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1st Floor Condo in Lochmoor – No Stairs! Tile Floors Throughout! Convenient first-floor unit with no stairs to enter in the established Lochmoor community of North Fort Myers. Walking distance to shopping, dining, and services. One assigned parking space right in front of the unit. Enjoy community amenities including a pool, clubhouse, workout room, and playground. Ideal for both homeowners looking to personalize their space and investors seeking excellent investment potential. Low HOA fees keep costs down. Great opportunity at an attractive price—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Lochmoor community
• No stairs

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR CONDO
• LOCHMOOR COMMUNITY
• NO STAIRS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• NOT IN FLOOD HAZARD AREA
• LOW HOA FEES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (cats allowed; dogs restricted)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; HOA covers management, insurance, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, reserve fund and trash; Community amenities include basketball court, bike storage, barbecue, picnic area, park and pool; 116 units in the community; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Public maintained road access
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Two-story property; Entry on level 1; Faces south; North exposure
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community tennis courts; Community pool; Reclaimed water irrigation; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Great Room
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Combined living/dining area; Tub/shower; Cable TV; Window treatments; Window coverings; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#358 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $90k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.70%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-9,603
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-12,167
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33903

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,319/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$383
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $166	+0% $141	+5% $115	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $84	+0% $141	+5% $198	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $164	base $141	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4773 Orange Grove Blvd #7 North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	741	$1,500	$2.02	25d	1	0.07mi
4789 Orange Grove Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	741	$1,300	$1.75	22d	1	0.07mi
4789 Orange Grove Blvd #12 North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	741	$1,300	$1.75	4d	1	0.07mi
4777 Orange Grove Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	741	$1,200	$1.62	25d	1	0.10mi
4749 # F3 # N Unit Orange Grove Blvd unit North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	741	$1,095	$1.48	25d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $383 · $4,596/yr
• Likely covers: poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-05-22
    price $90,000
13. 2026-05-05
    price $99,000
14. 2026-04-21
    price $110,000
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $120,000 Active
16. 2026-03-16
    historical
17. 2026-03-08
    listed $130,000 Active
18. 2025-10-02
    historical
19. 2025-04-02
    listed $140,000 Active
20. 2025-03-01
    historical
21. 2024-12-17
    price $145,000
22. 2024-09-01
    listed $155,000 Active
23. 1981-08-01
    soldstatus $39,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,319
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − HOA: −$4,596
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$135
• After-tax cash flow: $1,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lochmoor Waterway Estates

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #6244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lochmoor Waterway Estates, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,655
• Household income: $56,993
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.26%
• Current HPI: 256.773
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.94%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+127.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $90,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $99,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $110,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $120,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $130,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listed $140,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $145,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listed $155,000 FORTMLS
• 1981-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,319 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.