500 Sycamore Cv · Pecan Plantation, TX 76048

$234,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · Land · 36 Days on market

Built 2025 6,970 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21187985 - Built by NHC - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Model 2002 - Sequoia - The Sequoia Plan from our Freedom Series is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,002 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you’ll pass the staircase to the upper level and a convenient half bathroom before arriving at the open concept living area. The family room flows effortlessly into the kitchen, which boasts an angled island that overlooks the dining area. This layout is perfect for family gatherings and everyday living. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. The primary suite features a walk-in closet an

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($627/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,656 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-38,818
• Equity at exit: $35,038

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-45,569
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,140

Max offer price $234,990

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $133	+0% $52	+5% $-29	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-35	+0% $52	+5% $139	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $112	base $52	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
350 Azalea Trl Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	44d	1	0.07mi
383 Azalea Trl Granbury, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.09mi
150 Bluebonnet Way Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,095	$0.95	6d	1	0.09mi
3802 Juniper Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	44d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $234,990
3. 2026-03-06
   price $249,990
4. 2026-02-23
   listed $255,544 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$783
• After-tax cash flow: $1,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $234,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $249,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $255,544 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +34.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.