18107 Mellon St · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$323,557

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 5,040 sqft lot $284/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

Key facts

• Single level
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PATIO ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Zoned PD-MU; Living area reported as 1,429 sq ft (builder source)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,966; Total annual fees: $3,411.96 (total monthly $284.33)
• HOA & community: HOA required (CCMC Brad Jeffers); Monthly HOA $284.33 (includes internet and grounds maintenance); Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, reclaimed water irrigation, sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Association approval required
• Utilities: Private water source (canal/lake for irrigation); Private sewer; Electricity connected; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled; Water and sewer available/connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; New construction (projected completion May 20, 2026); Northeast facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar (Belmont model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Corner lot; Asphalt/paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen combined with family room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen/family room combo and living/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $257,633 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-77,003
• Equity at exit: $48,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-117,927
• Equity at exit: $27,975

Cash invested: $90,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,697
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,259/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$284
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $276,119

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-177	+0% $-269	+5% $-360	+10% $-452
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-370	+0% $-269	+5% $-167	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-186	base $-269	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,889
• Closing costs: $9,707
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $284 · $3,408/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-15
   price $323,557 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

2. 2026-04-15
   price $323,557

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

3. 2026-04-07
   price $299,557 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

4. 2026-04-06
   price $299,557
5. 2026-03-31
   price $313,557 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

6. 2026-03-31
   listed $313,557 Active

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

7. 2026-03-24
   listed $321,597 Active 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

8. 2026-02-20
   soldstatus $713,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,686 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$36/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,259
• − Insurance: −$1,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − HOA: −$3,408
• − Depreciation: −$9,413
• Taxable loss: −$8,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-54.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $323,557 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $323,557 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $299,557 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $299,557 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $313,557 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Listed $313,557 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $321,597 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $713,000 Public Records