138 Locust Cir · Monticello, AR 71655

$15,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1965 0.41 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT PROPERTY NEW FLOOR PLAN AVAILABE TO FINISH OUT PROJECT ESTIMATES AVAILABLE!!

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.41 acre lot (17,860 sq ft)
• Financial info: Annual taxes listed
• HOA & community: HOA/association fees billed annually

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car parking
• Home design: Brick and frame combination exterior
• Construction: 3-tab shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Inside city limits

Interior

• Flooring: Concrete
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating/cooling (see remarks)
• Interior features: Concrete floors; Heating/air: Other (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $16k).
• Cap rate 59.4% vs local median 2.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#72 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Monticello School District (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #161 of 238 in AR (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Drew County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $107 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $465 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Drew County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 189.81%
• DSCR: 9.45
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,112
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Locust Cir	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,456 (0%)	0mo	$15,500	$11	100
303 S Gabbert St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,374 (-6%)	13mo	$106,000	$77	51
513 S Gabbert St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,483 (+2%)	22mo	$115,000	$78	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.50×
• Total profit: $41,217
• Equity at exit: $2,311

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.25×
• Total profit: $92,219
• Equity at exit: $1,340

Cash invested: $4,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71655

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$81
• Tax from tax record: −$7 /mo · $83/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $120

Max offer price $15,500

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $695	-5% $691	+0% $686	+5% $682	+10% $678
Rent	-10% $608	-5% $647	+0% $686	+5% $726	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $694	-0.5pp $690	base $686	+0.5pp $682	+1.0pp $678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,875
• Closing costs: $465
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $15,500 Under Contract 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   remarks 87-char remark
3. 2026-06-04
   listed $15,500 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $83 · $7/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $99 · $8/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$868
• − Property taxes: −$83
• − Insurance: −$78
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$451
• Taxable income: $8,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $6,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello School District
• NCES district ID: 0509840
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $33,146
• Composite: 24.19/100
• National rank: #7732
• State rank: #161 of 238 in AR

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #8686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Monticello, AR
• Population (ZIP): 13,892

Population outlook (Drew County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,483 people
• By 2030: 18,278 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 17,712 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 17,015 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 15,815 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 14,335 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 28% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Drew

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.2% · R 66.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+18.9 2008: R+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.27%
• Current HPI: 218.1414
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-40.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $15,500 CARMLS
• 2008-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1981-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $83 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.