916 Ward · Marlin, TX 76661

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,835 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1950 0.36 ac lot Est $150k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for a home for your personal residence or for re-sale. This home does need some help, but the potential is there to bring this home back to life. Lots of square feet to work with (Approximately 1850 sq. ft. ) and also includes a large yard. Home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 2 living areas, each with a fireplace. There is a garage apartment that could be good future income. It does need work to be habitable. This is a great location on a corner lot. Please give this home some consideration, it won't last long.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Corner lot
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.80%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,470
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 Rock Dam Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+0%)	7mo	$55,000	$30	84
216 Bluebonnet	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+1%)	0mo	$99,900	$54	77
100 Fm 2117	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,933 (+5%)	1mo	$215,000	$111	72
1213 Norbert St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+4%)	9mo	$109,500	$58	69
446 Norwood St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,818 (-1%)	8mo	$175,000	$96	67
237 Palm	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,855 (+1%)	1mo	$43,160	$23	66
1405 Northridge St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-11%)	2mo	$189,000	$116	65
413 Houghton Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-13%)	4mo	$115,000	$72	55
125 Royal Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-8%)	14mo	$115,000	$68	51
420 Sunset Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-10%)	23mo	$227,000	$137	47
209 Country Club Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (-6%)	16mo	$329,850	$191	40
611 Capps St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,636 (-11%)	10mo	$134,900	$82	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $41,379
• Equity at exit: $40,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $104,067
• Equity at exit: $67,441

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,642/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $845

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $443	+0% $420	+5% $398	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $311	-5% $366	+0% $420	+5% $475	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $440	base $420	+0.5pp $400	+1.0pp $379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,642 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,642 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$2,642
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $4,117
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$988
• After-tax cash flow: $4,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $79,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,642 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.