21 King St · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$729,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1930 0.46 ac lot $725/sqft · 14% below area Est $850k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Hampton Bays Ranch set on a lush, shy half-acre in the heart of Hampton Bays. This home features hardwood floors throughout and a cozy fireplace with an insert, perfect for relaxing evenings. Updated kitchen. Quality Upgrades include energy efficient Anderson windows, newer oil burner with a Riello head , newer hot water heater. and a central air conditioning system for year-round comfort. For added space there is a full unfinished basement, and an attic, offering endless possibilities for storage or future expansion. Enjoy the lovely gardens , outdoor shower,and a convenient carport. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this Hampton Bays gem your own.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $729k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $729k).
• Recommended offer: $685k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,470/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $204k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($685k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $685,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.77%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $850,319
• List price: $729,000
• Delta: -14.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 King St	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,012 (+1%)	12mo	$840,000	$830	77
32 Hampton Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0	900 (-10%)	8mo	$635,000	$706	68
10 Argonne Rd W	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-3%)	6mo	$707,000	$721	68
28 Kyle Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+0%)	12mo	$770,000	$764	58
12 Harvard Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,016 (+1%)	10mo	$717,000	$706	52
27 Atlantic Ave	0.65mi	2/1.5	990 (-2%)	19mo	$675,000	$682	49
2 Flocee Ln	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,109 (+10%)	16mo	$800,000	$721	48
39 Lynncliff Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,112 (+10%)	0mo	$790,000	$710	46
4 Holiday Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,097 (+9%)	6mo	$700,000	$638	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $5,360
• Equity at exit: $108,696

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $292,051
• Equity at exit: $63,031

Cash invested: $204,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,823
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,432/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,569
• Net cashflow: $1,322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,797

Max offer price $729,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,250
• Closing costs: $21,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.14mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.33mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.42mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	0.58mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	43d	1	0.59mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.61mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	18d	1	0.68mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	0.78mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	6d	12	0.90mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	43d	1	0.97mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	1.08mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	24d	1	1.11mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	20d	1	1.12mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.17mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	24d	1	1.20mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	1.24mi
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	43d	1	1.27mi
6 Lynn Ct Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1212	$2,900	$2.39	43d	1	1.32mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $729,000 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $729,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $729,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-04-30
   price $729,000 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming Hampton Bays Ranch set on a lush, shy half-acre in the heart of Hampton Bays. This home features hardwood floors throughout and a cozy fireplace with an insert, perfect for relaxing evenings. Updated kitchen. Quality Upgrades include energy efficient Anderson windows, newer oil burner with a Riello head , newer hot water heater. and a central air conditioning system for year-round comfort. For added space there is a full unfinished basement, and an attic, offering endless possibilities for storage or future expansion. Enjoy the lovely gardens , outdoor shower,and a convenient carport. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this Hampton Bays gem your own.

5. 2026-04-15
   price $739,000 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming Hampton Bays Ranch set on a lush, shy half-acre in the heart of Hampton Bays. This home features hardwood floors throughout and a cozy fireplace with an insert, perfect for relaxing evenings. Updated kitchen. Quality Upgrades include energy efficient Anderson windows, newer oil burner with a Riello head , newer hot water heater. and a central air conditioning system for year-round comfort. For added space there is a full unfinished basement, and an attic, offering endless possibilities for storage or future expansion. Enjoy the lovely gardens , outdoor shower,and a convenient carport. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this Hampton Bays gem your own.

6. 2026-03-21
   listed $749,000 Active 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming Hampton Bays Ranch set on a lush, shy half-acre in the heart of Hampton Bays. This home features hardwood floors throughout and a cozy fireplace with an insert, perfect for relaxing evenings. Updated kitchen. Quality Upgrades include energy efficient Anderson windows, newer oil burner with a Riello head , newer hot water heater. and a central air conditioning system for year-round comfort. For added space there is a full unfinished basement, and an attic, offering endless possibilities for storage or future expansion. Enjoy the lovely gardens , outdoor shower,and a convenient carport. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this Hampton Bays gem your own.

7. 2026-03-20
   price $749,000 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming Hampton Bays Ranch set on a lush, shy half-acre in the heart of Hampton Bays. This home features hardwood floors throughout and a cozy fireplace with an insert, perfect for relaxing evenings. Updated kitchen. Quality Upgrades include energy efficient Anderson windows, newer oil burner with a Riello head , newer hot water heater. and a central air conditioning system for year-round comfort. For added space there is a full unfinished basement, and an attic, offering endless possibilities for storage or future expansion. Enjoy the lovely gardens , outdoor shower,and a convenient carport. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this Hampton Bays gem your own.

8. 2026-03-17
   historical $679,000 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Charming Hampton Bays Ranch set on a lush, shy half-acre in the heart of Hampton Bays. This home features hardwood floors throughout and a cozy fireplace with an insert, perfect for relaxing evenings. Updated kitchen. Quality Upgrades include energy efficient Anderson windows, newer oil burner with a Riello head , newer hot water heater. and a central air conditioning system for year-round comfort. For added space there is a full unfinished basement, and an attic, offering endless possibilities for storage or future expansion. Enjoy the lovely gardens , outdoor shower,and a convenient carport. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this Hampton Bays gem your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,432 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,876 · $740/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,444/yr (+$287/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,835
• − Property taxes: −$5,432
• − Insurance: −$3,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,171
• − Management: −$7,171
• − Depreciation: −$21,207
• Taxable income: $4,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $14,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $729,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $739,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Coming Soon $679,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,432 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.