13219 S Watermann Ln · Goodyear, AZ 85326

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1996 1.09 ac lot Est $336k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper on a little more than an acre! This property sits on over an acre with fenced in area in back. Large workshop in back with window ac.Buyers Agent or Buyer to verify all information. Careful where you step.

Key facts

• Farm house style
• Large flat lot
• 1.09 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE FLAT LOT
• BUILT IN WORK SHOP SPACE
• FARM HOUSE STYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 open parking space; RV access/parking with RV gate and side vehicle entry
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (septic in & connected); 220 volt electric in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Property listed as fixer condition; Views of desert and mountains
• Construction: Painted exterior materials; Other construction materials; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and back yard; Chain link fencing; Horses allowed; horse amenities referenced (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included; 220 volts available in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Skylight(s); Other interior features noted
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Buckeye Union High School District (4284) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #129 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Buckeye Union High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #242 of 381 statewide, top 64%, 1,775 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $240k implies a 284% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,592 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,336
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12601 S Hermit Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,567 (+8%)	10mo	$380,000	$243	54
20519 W Rainbow Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-14%)	3mo	$187,500	$149	53
14524 S Tuthill Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	13mo	$355,500	$227	42
13344 S Garnet Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+15%)	7mo	$387,500	$231	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-27,005
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,941
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85326

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,811

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13316 S 190th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,549	$1.54	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $240,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 83.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$133
• After-tax cash flow: $3,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buckeye Union High School District (4284)
• NCES district ID: 0401410
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,182
• Composite: 22.91/100
• National rank: #7995
• State rank: #129 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 75,359
• Household income: $89,876
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 38% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.00%
• Current HPI: 286.9242
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.92%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1983.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2014-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2010-08-18 Sold (MLS) $31,800 ARMLS
• 2010-07-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2010-07-10 Listed $31,800 ARMLS
• 2006-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $155,900 Public Records
• 2006-10-13 Sold (MLS) $155,900 ARMLS
• 2006-10-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-08-08 Listed $155,900 ARMLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-07-12 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 1995-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.