Is 2306 Red Bird Trce in Lockhart, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 6.0% cap rate and $-60/mo modeled cash flow at a $264,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2306 Red Bird Trce?

The modeled cap rate is 6.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,306/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 42.55

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +12.1/30.0
ARV discount +10.7/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.7/10.0
DSCR +3.6/10.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Schools +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$264,990

2306 Red Bird Trce · Lockhart, TX 78644

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,052 sqft lot 1-car garage $140/sqft · 7% below area Est $285k · 7% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY. The Franklin is our largest floorplan available at Lantana in Lockhart, Texas. This beautiful two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 2-car garage across 1,892 square feet of comfortable living space. Our homes in Lantana feature front masonry exteriors. Step inside the home from the front porch and cross the foyer to the family room, kitchen and dining room. This large open concept area is perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42' upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Attached bathroom
Open concept area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-716/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (3.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (13.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $231k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
Market conditions: 692 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,582 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.87% ✗
Cap rate: 6.02%
Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
DSCR: 0.96
GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $284,990
List price: $264,990
Delta: -7.02%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2303 Red Bird Trce	0.03mi	5/2.5	1,892 (0%)	1mo	$269,990	$143	97
2302 Red Bird Trce	0.02mi	5/2.5	2,215 (+17%)	0mo	$299,990	$135	74
409 Kolbo Crossing Cv	2.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (-1%)	3mo	$359,990	$193	54
3917 Melody Rd	2.25mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,984 (+5%)	1mo	$353,900	$178	44
314 Watersong Bnd	2.07mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,984 (+5%)	1mo	$349,900	$176	44
3925 Wishing Well Dr	1.93mi	3/2.0 (-2)	2,026 (+7%)	1mo	$376,900	$186	40
235 Howard Dr	2.11mi	5/2.5	2,215 (+17%)	1mo	$298,990	$135	39
3804 Sonesta St	2.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,187 (+16%)	1mo	$389,900	$178	34
3923 Wishing Well Dr	2.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,442 (+29%)	1mo	$399,900	$164	34
238 Konrad Creek Dr	2.01mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,314 (+22%)	1mo	$335,000	$145	32
101 Kendall Ln	2.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,359 (-28%)	1mo	$229,990	$169	32
307 Melody Rd	1.97mi	3/2.0 (-2)	2,127 (+12%)	1mo	$458,900	$216	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -17.9%
Equity multiple: 0.37×
Total profit: $-46,676
Equity at exit: $39,511

10-year hold

IRR: -10.0%
Equity multiple: 0.39×
Total profit: $-45,273
Equity at exit: $22,911

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 11 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $299,990 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market: 79 d
This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -5.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

Home prices YoY: -29.4%
Active inventory: 692
Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,306 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
Insurance: −$110
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $256,353

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $32	+0% $-60	+5% $-151	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-151	+0% $-60	+5% $31	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $8	base $-60	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $66,248
Closing costs: $7,950
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Mandatory HOAAnnual HOA fee of $600Association transfer fee of $325

Exterior

Parking: Attached 1-car garage
Utilities: Additional water/sewer information available
Home design: New construction by D.R. HortonBrick exteriorSlab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built by DR HORTON (new)Brick exteriorSlab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Privacy fenceDouble-pane windows

Interior

Kitchen: Island kitchenGas cookingStove/RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath (16 x 13)Bedroom 2 (11 x 11)Bedroom 3 (11 x 11)Bedroom 4 (11 x 11)Bedroom 5 (10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroomPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity (12 x 11)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor planLiving/dining room combinationIsland kitchen1 living areaAll bedrooms on upper levelLaundry located in upper-level closetWalk-in closetsPartially floored attic with pull-down stairs and radiant barrier deckingSmoke alarmGas water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connectionsLaundry in upper-level closet

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $264,990 Active 164 DOM
2026-11-07

statusdays on market $264,990 Active 163 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $264,990 Price Change 162 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $264,990 Price Change 161 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $264,990 Price Change 160 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $264,990 Price Change 158 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $264,990 Price Change 157 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $264,990 Price Change 156 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $264,990 Price Change 155 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $264,990 Price Change 154 DOM
2026-10-28

pricestatusdays on market $264,990 Price Change 153 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $276,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $276,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $276,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $276,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $276,990 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $276,990 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $276,990 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $276,990 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $276,990 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $276,990 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $276,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $276,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $276,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $276,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $276,990 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $276,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $276,990 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $276,990 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $276,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $276,990 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $276,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $276,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $276,990 Active 130 DOM
2026-10-04

statusdays on market $276,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $276,990 Price Change 128 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $276,990 Price Change 127 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $276,990 Price Change 126 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $276,990 Price Change 125 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $276,990 Price Change 124 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $276,990 Price Change 123 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $276,990 Price Change 122 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $276,990 Price Change 120 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $276,990 Price Change 119 DOM
2026-09-23

pricestatusdays on market $276,990 Price Change 118 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $274,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $274,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $274,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $274,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $274,990 Active 113 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,670
− Mortgage interest: −$14,844
− Property taxes: −$3,975
− Insurance: −$1,325
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
− Management: −$2,214
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$7,709
Taxable loss: −$5,209

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,250
After-tax cash flow: $534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,460–$28,380 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary George W Carver Early Education Center High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lockhart ISD
NCES district ID: 4827870
Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $48,868
Composite: 24.44/100
National rank: #7674
State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

Score: 67/100
State rank: #535
US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
City population: 22,348
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 22,348
Household income: $74,709
Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,557 people
By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
Current HPI: 239.7906
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-28 Listed $299,990 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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