2518 Kingsford Arbor Way · Spring, TX 77373

$239,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,021 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 171 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot $119/sqft · 15% below area Est $283k · 15% under $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This immaculate home offers an open concept floorplan flooded with natural light. The master suite is conveniently located on the main level, featuring a private bath and spacious closet. Upstairs, you'll find two additional roomy bedrooms and a large second living area or game room. The kitchen is equipped with a gas range for efficient cooking and opens to a sizable utility room. Outside, the backyard is perfect for gatherings or unwinding in the evening breeze.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Private bath
• Game room

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• MASTER SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• LARGE SECOND LIVING AREA
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (7.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gloria Marshall El (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 953 students, 81% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 760 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,645
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 Ski Lodge Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,958 (-3%)	13mo	$265,000	$135	70
23510 Treeline Bluff Trl	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,892 (-6%)	21mo	$275,000	$145	51
23819 Creek Ridge Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-7%)	9mo	$210,000	$112	48
4802 Hickorygate Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,108 (+4%)	10mo	$128,000	$61	43
23710 Prairie Bird Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,789 (-12%)	10mo	$185,000	$103	40
23803 Ironside Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,822 (-10%)	16mo	$250,000	$137	37
22815 Tree House Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-13%)	11mo	$180,000	$102	34
23918 Spring Mill Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (-14%)	22mo	$225,000	$129	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-51,985
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-80,117
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 75 active · 54 under contract
• Median asking: $250,000 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 760
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$636 /mo · $7,627/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,605

Max offer price $222,932

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-28	+0% $-96	+5% $-164	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-194	+0% $-96	+5% $2	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-35	base $-96	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$1,926	$0.86	42d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail $64/mo · $768/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-07-28
   days on market $239,900 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-07-26
   days on market $239,900 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-07-24
   days on market $239,900 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $239,900 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $239,900 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-07-20
   days on market $239,900 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,900 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,900 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,900 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $239,900 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-06-24
    days on market $239,900 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 131 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,900 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 126 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 125 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 123 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 119 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 118 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 117 DOM
43. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 114 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-02-10
    listed $239,900 Active 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    This immaculate home offers an open concept floorplan flooded with natural light. The master suite is conveniently located on the main level, featuring a private bath and spacious closet. Upstairs, you'll find two additional roomy bedrooms and a large second living area or game room. The kitchen is equipped with a gas range for efficient cooking and opens to a sizable utility room. Outside, the backyard is perfect for gatherings or unwinding in the evening breeze.

49. 2025-12-31
    historical
50. 2025-11-03
    listed $263,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,627 · $636/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,627 · $636/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$7,627
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,384
• − Management: −$2,384
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $43/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,105–$30,315 screening

This well-maintained single-family home offers an open concept floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace window blinds — Improves home's aesthetic and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and convenience ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gloria Marshall El F TX #3,536/4,322 Nat'l #33,283/41,679 Middle Rickey C Bailey Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Spring H S F TX #1,497/1,632 Nat'l #15,176/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $263,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $263,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Listed $269,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+23.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,627 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.