3893 Dewberry Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$289,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · Manufactured public records · 523 Days on market

Built 1972 3,963 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Yes indeed, this is a 3 bedroom, 2 - 1/2 bath single wide, with sewer, waterfront with 2 - 4K# davits, large mango tree AND furnished, ready to move in! Two of the bedrooms have cedar closets. New 3 ton A/C in 2012. Bring your toothbrush, clothes, rods, reels, boat and some groceries and you will be eating fresh fish in no time!

Key facts

• Direct gulf access
• In-home laundry area
• Waterfront home

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• DIRECT GULF ACCESS
• IN-HOME LAUNDRY AREA
• MULTIPLE COVERED PATIOS
• BREATHTAKING WATERFRONT VIEWS
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee; Boat facilities in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Driveway parking; Paved parking; Two spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Entry level: 1; Northeast facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Lanai; Glass-enclosed porch; Open patio; Screened porch; Fruit trees; Outbuilding; Seawall; Canal access; Mangrove; Navigable water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator with ice maker; Freezer; Icemaker; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Florida room; Screened porch
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Ceiling fans; Wall unit and window unit cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Pantry; Shower only with separate shower; Bar; Window treatments; Split bedrooms; Furnished; Impact glass windows; Single-hung windows; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 523 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $290k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 523 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.15%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $25,877
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $117,134
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,495/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$930
• Net cashflow: $1,139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,986

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,303	-5% $1,221	+0% $1,139	+5% $1,057	+10% $975
Rent	-10% $790	-5% $964	+0% $1,139	+5% $1,314	+10% $1,489
Rate	-1.0pp $1,285	-0.5pp $1,213	base $1,139	+0.5pp $1,064	+1.0pp $988

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.17mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.27mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.32mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.61mi
2744 Sanderling Ct Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	841	$5,300	$6.30	24d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 523 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 522 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 521 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 519 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 515 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 513 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 508 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 507 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 506 DOM
10. 2026-03-14
    price $289,900
11. 2026-01-10
    price $295,900
12. 2024-12-20
    listed $299,900 Active
13. 2015-12-09
    soldstatus $125,000
14. 2013-12-30
    soldstatus $94,900
15. 2013-12-26
    soldstatus $94,900 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Yes indeed, this is a 3 bedroom, 2 - 1/2 bath single wide, with sewer, waterfront with 2 - 4K# davits, large mango tree AND furnished, ready to move in! Two of the bedrooms have cedar closets. New 3 ton A/C in 2012. Bring your toothbrush, clothes, rods, reels, boat and some groceries and you will be eating fresh fish in no time!

16. 1994-05-17
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,495 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,495 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,495
• − Insurance: −$6,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,251
• − Management: −$4,251
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable income: $9,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,376
• After-tax cash flow: $11,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+346.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $289,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $295,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $299,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records
• 2013-12-26 Sold (MLS) $94,900 FORTMLS
• 1994-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,495 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.