2272 Carol St · Cahokia Heights, IL 62206

$19,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1939 0.47 ac lot $23/sqft · 72% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1939

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 57.6% vs local median 13.6% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,306/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 729% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 183.40%
• DSCR: 9.16
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,470
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -72.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Louise Ln	0.17mi	3/1.0	864 (+1%)	2mo	$97,500	$113	85
59 Helen Ct	0.19mi	3/1.0	864 (+1%)	1mo	$105,000	$122	85
45 Delores	0.25mi	3/1.0	864 (+1%)	11mo	$75,000	$87	73
23 Delores Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	864 (+1%)	5mo	$105,000	$122	73
21 Agnes Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	864 (+1%)	1mo	$29,900	$35	72
16 Helen Ct	0.34mi	3/1.0	900 (+5%)	1mo	$50,000	$56	71
15 Agnes Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	864 (+1%)	5mo	$105,000	$122	70
6 Delores Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	864 (+1%)	5mo	$105,000	$122	68
17 Hanover Ln	0.57mi	3/1.0	925 (+8%)	1mo	$50,000	$54	55
5 E Adams Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	925 (+8%)	5mo	$105,000	$114	50
17 Drexel Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	925 (+8%)	10mo	$75,500	$82	44
2350 Lorraine Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5	966 (+13%)	11mo	$69,900	$72	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $41,468
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.88×
• Total profit: $94,046
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62206

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $421

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2231 Loren St Cahokia Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.17mi
13 Marilyn Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	995	$1,150	$1.16	43d	1	0.32mi
21 Agnes Dr Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,050	$1.22	21d	1	0.46mi
6 Delores Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	23d	1	0.47mi
6 Delores Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	12d	1	0.47mi
2 E Adams Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	925	$885	$0.96	43d	1	0.60mi
13 Drexel Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	925	$995	$1.08	12d	1	0.65mi
70 W Adams Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	925	$1,200	$1.30	43d	1	0.82mi
2116 Doris Ave Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	880	$1,400	$1.59	21d	1	0.83mi
2008 Delores St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	925	$1,250	$1.35	4d	1	1.15mi
1808 Mullens Ave Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	2d	1	1.15mi
1713 Loretta Ave East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,095	$1.16	43d	1	1.25mi
1716 # E Unit Loretta Ave unit East St Louis, IL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	43d	1	1.25mi
1421 Richard Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,100	$1.18	1d	1	1.42mi
1417 Richard Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	21d	1	1.44mi
1405 Williams St Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,900 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $19,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $19,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    status Active
16. 2026-04-04
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-03-07
    listed $19,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$1,924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $8,737
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,097
• After-tax cash flow: $6,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cahokia CUSD 187
• NCES district ID: 1708040
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 5% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $28,028
• Composite: 6.44/100
• National rank: #14827
• State rank: #864 of 919 in IL

Livability — Cahokia Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cahokia Heights, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 19,956
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 12,959
• Household income: $33,838
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.26%
• Current HPI: 131.5144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Listed $19,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $812 · -61.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.