404 W Kirkham Ave · Webster Groves, MO 63119

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1924 8,058 sqft lot $163/sqft · 45% below area Est $271k · 45% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath bungalow in the top-rated Webster Groves School District. Just minutes from dining, art galleries & local entertainment, this home sits in one of the most desirable pockets of St. Louis County. Recent updates to the kitchen, bathroom, electrical wiring & panel give you a great start—now it’s ready for your finishing touch. Although the home is located in a flood plain & sold as-is, it presents an amazing opportunity to own or invest in a highly sought-after area.

Key facts

• 8,058 sq ft lot
• Built 1924
• Listed 34 days

Tags

• WEBSTER GROVES SCHOOL DISTRICT
• RECENT UPDATES TO KITCHEN
• RECENT UPDATES TO BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($93/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.8% in Webster Groves — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#37 in MO, #3,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster Groves (suburban): math 56% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #7 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.38%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,301
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -44.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 W Kirkham Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	918 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$163	100
340 W Kirkham Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0	976 (+6%)	15mo	$285,000	$292	72
321 Madison Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	986 (+7%)	4mo	$255,000	$259	60
206 Eldridge Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	864 (-6%)	5mo	$250,000	$289	58
336 Madison Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,012 (+10%)	7mo	$274,900	$272	53
500 Cornell Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-6%)	4mo	$239,900	$278	53
120 Madison Ave	0.58mi	2/1.5	875 (-5%)	16mo	$219,900	$251	50
122 Madison Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (+4%)	17mo	$235,000	$247	48
330 Lithia Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+5%)	15mo	$219,000	$228	46
615 Cornell Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+10%)	4mo	$124,900	$124	46
400 Corona Ct	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,028 (+12%)	1mo	$279,900	$272	45
806 Ennis Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (+4%)	15mo	$139,900	$147	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,513
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $35,597
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63119

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,121/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $50	+0% $8	+5% $-35	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-67	+0% $8	+5% $82	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $46	base $8	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Bismark Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	853	$2,095	$2.46	45d	1	0.44mi
324 Eldridge Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	0d	1	0.58mi
539 N Elm Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	12d	1	0.63mi
226 E Lockwood Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	672	$2,570	$3.82	0d	5	0.77mi
9724 Greenwood Ter Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	907	$1,525	$1.68	21d	1	0.79mi
927 N Elm Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	828	$1,800	$2.17	21d	1	0.93mi
153 Willis Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1097	$2,100	$1.91	3d	1	0.98mi
9816 Obrien Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,100	$2.02	0d	1	1.02mi
1034 N Rock Hill Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	696	$1,650	$2.37	45d	1	1.11mi
9305 Manchester Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,445	$1.86	3d	12	1.12mi
2806 Hilldale Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,550	$2.31	0d	1	1.31mi
9006 Madge Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	9d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath bungalow in the top-rated Webster Groves School District. Just minutes from dining, art galleries & local entertainment, this home sits in one of the most desirable pockets of St. Louis County. Recent updates to the kitchen, bathroom, electrical wiring & panel give you a great start—now it’s ready for your finishing touch. Although the home is located in a flood plain & sold as-is, it presents an amazing opportunity to own or invest in a highly sought-after area.

2. 2026-04-22
   status Active 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath bungalow in the top-rated Webster Groves School District. Just minutes from dining, art galleries & local entertainment, this home sits in one of the most desirable pockets of St. Louis County. Recent updates to the kitchen, bathroom, electrical wiring & panel give you a great start—now it’s ready for your finishing touch. Although the home is located in a flood plain & sold as-is, it presents an amazing opportunity to own or invest in a highly sought-after area.

3. 2026-04-09
   status Pending 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath bungalow in the top-rated Webster Groves School District. Just minutes from dining, art galleries & local entertainment, this home sits in one of the most desirable pockets of St. Louis County. Recent updates to the kitchen, bathroom, electrical wiring & panel give you a great start—now it’s ready for your finishing touch. Although the home is located in a flood plain & sold as-is, it presents an amazing opportunity to own or invest in a highly sought-after area.

4. 2026-03-16
   listed $150,000 Active 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath bungalow in the top-rated Webster Groves School District. Just minutes from dining, art galleries & local entertainment, this home sits in one of the most desirable pockets of St. Louis County. Recent updates to the kitchen, bathroom, electrical wiring & panel give you a great start—now it’s ready for your finishing touch. Although the home is located in a flood plain & sold as-is, it presents an amazing opportunity to own or invest in a highly sought-after area.

5. 2025-10-19
   listed $174,900 Active
6. 2024-12-12
   historical
7. 2024-10-26
   status Active
8. 2024-10-25
   historical
9. 2024-10-25
   listed $205,000 Active
10. 2022-09-06
    price $175,000
11. 2022-07-01
    price $185,000
12. 1978-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,121
• − Insurance: −$6,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$504
• After-tax cash flow: $597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster Groves
• NCES district ID: 2931530
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,389
• Composite: 54.99/100
• National rank: #1298
• State rank: #7 of 324 in MO

Livability — Webster Groves

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #3184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Webster Groves, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 34,181
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 34,181
• Household income: $106,183
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1320.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.48%
• Current HPI: 221.7655
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-19 Listed $174,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-26 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Listed $205,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1978-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,121 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.