13828 Shellmore Ave · Ruskin, FL 34221

$385,999

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 2026 4,876 sqft lot $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. What's Special: 1st Floor Guest Suite | Flat Lot | Oversized Closet in Primary | Pond View | Loft. New Construction - May Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Sherwood at 13828 Shellmore Avenue in Cove at Coasterra! Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to the heart of the home where the great room, casual dining area and kitchen flow together effortlessly. Situated off the kitchen is a comfortable secondary bedroom with an attached full bathroom. Head upstairs to discover a cozy loft that provides additional living space along with three secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The primary bedroom is tucke

Key facts

• Pond view
• Fitness spaces
• Loft

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR GUEST SUITE
• POND VIEW
• LOFT
• FOUR POOLS AT CLUB COASTERRA
• LAKESIDE PAVILION
• FITNESS SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty available; Builder license CBC1257822
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $2,100; Total monthly fees $58 (total annual fees $696)
• HOA & community: Cove at Coasterra HOA (monthly fee $58; includes pool and grounds maintenance; association approval required); HOA amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pickleball courts, playground, pool, recreation facilities, trails; Community features: dog park, golf carts allowed, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Hurricane shutters
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Fiber optics available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-05-30); Faces northwest; Residential zoning
• Construction: New construction; Block and cement siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Taylor Morrison (Model: Sherwood)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Hurricane shutters; Irrigation equipment; Pond view; Paved road access; Sprinkler recycled

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Window treatments; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $385,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $415,664.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $386k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,295/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $329,537 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $415,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13828 Shellmore Ave	0.00mi	5/3.5	2,504 (0%)	0mo	$385,000	$154	100
9320 Chiswell Trl	0.11mi	5/3.5	2,516 (+0%)	0mo	$365,900	$145	94
13721 Shellmore Ave	0.00mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (-9%)	1mo	$364,999	$161	75
13811 Shellmore Ave	0.00mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (-9%)	3mo	$365,000	$161	73
9324 Chiswell Trl	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,271 (-9%)	3mo	$339,000	$149	66
13509 Shellmore Ave	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-13%)	0mo	$365,000	$168	63
13431 Shellmore Ave	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-13%)	2mo	$380,000	$175	60
9142 Dalera Cv	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-13%)	3mo	$378,000	$174	60
13221 Shellmore Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,723 (+9%)	2mo	$465,000	$171	60
13212 Shellmore Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,723 (+9%)	1mo	$451,180	$166	60
13407 Shellmore Ave	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-13%)	2mo	$340,000	$157	58
13307 Shellmore Ave	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,190 (-12%)	7mo	$400,000	$183	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-97,768
• Equity at exit: $61,977

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-148,946
• Equity at exit: $35,939

Cash invested: $116,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$520 /mo · $6,235/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,710

Max offer price $368,315

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,916
• Closing costs: $12,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	1.23mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	24d	1	1.27mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	20d	1	1.38mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	24d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $385,999
3. 2026-03-18
   price $389,999
4. 2026-03-17
   price $390,499
5. 2026-03-13
   price $389,999
6. 2026-02-17
   listed $389,499 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,284
• − Property taxes: −$6,235
• − Insurance: −$2,078
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,164
• − Management: −$3,164
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$12,092
• Taxable loss: −$11,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $385,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $389,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $390,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $389,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listed $389,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid