12070 Mircado Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$561,547

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,723 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 4,448 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is currently under construction, offering a great opportunity to personalize finishes and selections before its estimated completion in September 2026. Experience modern living in this brand-new Tri Pointe HomeResidence 4 at Starblossom at Montelena. This thoughtfully designed single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, blending comfort and functionality throughout. A charming foyer welcomes you into the heart of the home, where a spacious dining area flows seamlessly into the great roomideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Just off the entry, a private office provides the perfect space for working from home, studying, or staying organized. Two secondary bedr

Key facts

• 4,448 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Starblossom at Montelena subdivision, Rancho Cordova, CA 95742
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Cable connected; Solar; Natural gas connected; 220-volt electric; Public sewer; Water meter on site; Irrigation meter on site
• Home design: Detached single-family home; New construction (built 2026); Single-story
• Construction: Tile roof; Detached construction
• Exterior features: Front landscaping; Wood fence in back yard; Tile roof; No pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Energy-efficient construction, lighting, roof, and thermostat; Dual-pane windows with low-E glass; Great room living and family spaces; Dining/family combo; Office
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside (dedicated room)

🏗️ New construction. The $561,547 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $593,581.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $562k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (32.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (44.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $63k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($545k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,127 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.82%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $593,581
• List price: $561,547
• Delta: -5.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $242,431
• Equity at exit: $534,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $769,052
• Equity at exit: $1,153,197

Cash invested: $166,203 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,113
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-1,221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,687

Max offer price $377,877

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,395
• Closing costs: $17,807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	15d	1	0.32mi
11832 Stoney Ridge Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2019	$2,695	$1.33	10d	1	0.59mi
11688 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,499	$1.98	12d	1	0.90mi
11684 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,529	$2.00	22d	1	0.91mi
11664 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,199	$2.09	2d	1	0.93mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	44d	1	0.94mi
4071 Quorra Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,279	$2.05	2d	1	0.94mi
11641 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,189	$1.99	44d	1	0.97mi
11643 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,169	$2.07	24d	1	0.98mi
11617 Venitia Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,249	$2.03	8d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $561,547 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $561,547 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $561,547 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $561,547 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $561,547 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   price $553,455 738-char remark
7. 2026-04-28
   listed $547,133 Active 738-char remark
8. 2026-04-16
   soldstatus $2,844,000
9. 2023-07-27
   soldstatus $27,531,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,110 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,268 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,250
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$2,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − Depreciation: −$17,268
• Taxable loss: −$25,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,224
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-89.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $2,844,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $27,531,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,110 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.