22227 W Dixileta Dr · Wittmann, AZ 85361

$695,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,849 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2023 1.93 ac lot $244/sqft · 9% below area Est $766k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to your beautiful 2023 custom-built ranch home at 22227 W. Dixileta Dr. in Wittmann, Arizona! This amazing property offers a rare combination of modern luxury and versatile rural living on nearly 2 acres of land. This gorgeous 2,849 square foot home has 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, a modern open floorplan with a chef's kitchen that everyone will love. Interior upgrades include High 9+ foot ceilings, granite countertops, and a modern kitchen island with a breakfast bar. The home features concrete flooring and energy-efficient dual-pane windows. '' Primary Suite: A split-floorplan design for privacy, including a primary bedroom with its own gas fireplace and direct access to the backyard. The primary bath includes a double vanity and a separate shower and tub. '' Energy Efficiency: Bu with upgraded insulation throughout the entire home to maintain a quiet, climate-controlled environment. " Outdoor Living: A covered patio overlooks a lush grass yard set against a backdrop of desert and mountain views. " Versatile Land: The fully fenced property includes no-climb fencing and a gated entry, making it move-in ready for horses, RV storage, or future expansion like a workshop. Outside, spread out on your 1.93 acre lot which is flat, cleared, and fully perimeter-fenced land.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Chef's kitchen
• High 9 foot ceilings

Tags

• CUSTOM-BUILT RANCH HOME
• MODERN OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• HIGH 9 FOOT CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $457k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (42.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (42.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($674k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $695k implies a 690% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,900 (42.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.14%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $766,002
• List price: $695,000
• Delta: -9.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29507 N 224 Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,802 (-2%)	2mo	$715,000	$255	83
29817 N 223rd Ave	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,561 (-10%)	17mo	$599,000	$234	66
29317 N 223rd Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,802 (-2%)	21mo	$822,500	$294	61
28907 N 225th Ave	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,859 (+0%)	15mo	$664,900	$233	57
22272 W Roy Rogers Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,687 (-6%)	0mo	$795,000	$296	57
22335 W Max Dr	0.13mi	4/3.5	3,198 (+12%)	20mo	$771,500	$241	55
22409 W Max Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	3,198 (+12%)	18mo	$795,000	$249	54
29414 N 223rd Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (-11%)	13mo	$689,000	$273	52
29305 N 223rd Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (-11%)	20mo	$785,039	$311	44
29408 N 224th Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (-11%)	18mo	$700,000	$277	43
22435 W Bobwhite Way	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (-11%)	18mo	$719,000	$285	40
22337 W Bobwhite Way	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (-11%)	22mo	$681,192	$270	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $273,883
• Equity at exit: $626,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $888,989
• Equity at exit: $1,350,232

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$869 /mo · $10,425/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-1,644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,080

Max offer price $457,143

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23175 W Skinner Rd Wittmann, AZ	5.0	2.0	2451	$3,999	$1.63	1d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $695,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $695,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $695,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $695,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $695,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $695,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $695,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $695,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $695,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $695,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $695,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $695,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $695,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $725,000 Active 1303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1303 chars)

    Welcome home to your beautiful 2023 custom-built ranch home at 22227 W. Dixileta Dr. in Wittmann, Arizona! This amazing property offers a rare combination of modern luxury and versatile rural living on nearly 2 acres of land. This gorgeous 2,849 square foot home has 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, a modern open floorplan with a chef's kitchen that everyone will love. Interior upgrades include High 9+ foot ceilings, granite countertops, and a modern kitchen island with a breakfast bar. The home features concrete flooring and energy-efficient dual-pane windows. '' Primary Suite: A split-floorplan design for privacy, including a primary bedroom with its own gas fireplace and direct access to the backyard. The primary bath includes a double vanity and a separate shower and tub. '' Energy Efficiency: Bu with upgraded insulation throughout the entire home to maintain a quiet, climate-controlled environment. " Outdoor Living: A covered patio overlooks a lush grass yard set against a backdrop of desert and mountain views. " Versatile Land: The fully fenced property includes no-climb fencing and a gated entry, making it move-in ready for horses, RV storage, or future expansion like a workshop. Outside, spread out on your 1.93 acre lot which is flat, cleared, and fully perimeter-fenced land.

15. 2026-04-03
    historical
16. 2026-02-19
    price $750,000
17. 2025-11-02
    listed $799,000 Active
18. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus $88,000
19. 2005-02-04
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$10,425
• − Insurance: −$3,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,839
• − Management: −$3,839
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable loss: −$32,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,857
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wittmann

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #25597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1218.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $725,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $750,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed $799,000 ARMLS
• 2020-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $293 · -9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.