9226 River Rd · Matoaca, VA 23803

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1961 1.47 ac lot Est $328k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special on 1.47 Acres! Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom on a 1.47-acre lot in South Chesterfield. This property is ready for renovation and priced, offering upside potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to build equity. Enjoy a large, open front yard with plenty of space for outdoor living, and recreation. A detached 26' x 32' garage/workshop (±832 SF) provides additional space for storage, equipment, or hobby use. Ideally suited for Investors and Renovators. Property is being sold strictly AS-IS. One of the two bathrooms has been removed to the studs / sub floor and has not been replaced.

Key facts

• 1.47 acres
• Open front yard
• Detached garage

Tags

• 1.47 ACRES
• OPEN FRONT YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SPACE FOR OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Above grade finished living area: 1,492
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl and wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Above-ground pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the first floor with tub & shower
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating via electric, heat pump, and propane
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Resale condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Matoaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $240k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,742 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,240
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19604 White Fawn Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+0%)	22mo	$330,000	$220	70
9214 River Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (+13%)	10mo	$310,000	$184	62
20018 Oak River Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,520 (+2%)	14mo	$432,000	$284	53
19333 Eanes Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+4%)	9mo	$271,000	$175	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $758
• Equity at exit: $87,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $55,806
• Equity at exit: $120,897

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,037/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,935

Max offer price $201,314

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-151	+0% $-219	+5% $-287	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-284	+0% $-219	+5% $-154	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-158	base $-219	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 627-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 601-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $240,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,037
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$6,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,669
• After-tax cash flow: $-958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+158.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $240,000 CVRMLS
• 2011-10-29 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-08-15 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2000-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,037 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.