404 Karen Dr · Carl Junction, MO 64834

$189,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,829 sqft · Other · 32 Days on market

Built 1973 0.34 ac lot $103/sqft · 23% below area Est $245k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Carl Junction, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a comfortable layout with flexible living space inside and plenty of room to enjoy outside. The home features two living areas, giving you options for a main living room, family room, playroom, office, or hobby space. The kitchen offers warm wood cabinetry, generous counter space, stainless steel appliances, and an easy flow into the adjoining living and dining areas. Outside, you'll love the large backyard with mature shade trees, fenced areas, and a covered patio perfect for relaxing, grilling, or entertaining. The home also includes a dedicated laundry room and a bonus room with both interior and exterior access, offering gre

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Two living areas
• Covered patio

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• FENCED AREAS
• COVERED PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $930.61 annual tax

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family detached; Masonite exterior
• Construction: Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built with masonite siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Chain link fencing; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Convection oven
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 11
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Attic fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Fireplace; Accessible entrance

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($980/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Carl Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#169 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carl Junction R-I (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #57 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carl Junction Primary K-1 (670 students, 37% FRL); Carl Junction Jr. High (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #99 of 391 statewide, top 26%, 501 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,582 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,472
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -23.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,499
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,808
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $931/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1004 Southgate CIR Carl Junction, MO	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,595	$1.03	21d	1	1.09mi
702 Nicholas Ln Carl Junction, MO	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $189,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $189,000 Active 891-char remark
15. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus
16. 2021-10-28
    soldstatus
17. 1990-12-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$903/yr (+$75/mo · 97.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$931
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$547
• After-tax cash flow: $1,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carl Junction R-I
• NCES district ID: 2907350
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,866
• Composite: 41.04/100
• National rank: #3580
• State rank: #57 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carl Junction

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #9146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carl Junction, MO
• City population: 10,476
• Population (ZIP): 10,476

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.68%
• Current HPI: 255.1864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $189,000 OGAR
• 2022-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $931 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.