2960 Toulon Rd SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2006 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make an offer on this Holiday Builder''s 3 bedroom, 2 bath home for a short sale. It has alarge famly room, master bath has a garden tub and his and hers sinks. Located just south of Bayside Lakes, come and see!!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $250k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,462 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $153,355
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $442,069
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	19d	1	0.10mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	23d	1	0.48mi
1198 Venus St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,961	$1.28	21d	1	0.54mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	14d	1	0.60mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	14d	1	0.78mi
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	0.86mi
1406 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,100	$1.01	23d	1	0.88mi
1416 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	14d	1	0.88mi
1165 Rabbit St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,895	$0.95	19d	1	0.93mi
1783 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,100	$0.95	23d	1	0.95mi
1454 Graves St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	14d	1	1.06mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	1.10mi
830 Painesville St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,220	$1.09	14d	1	1.22mi
1660 Lizette St SE Unit 1 Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,199	$1.27	23d	1	1.23mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	19d	1	1.24mi
1677 Lizette St SE Unit A Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2080	$1,900	$0.91	14d	1	1.26mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	13d	1	1.28mi
1394 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	19d	1	1.28mi
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	21d	1	1.29mi
1843 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	1.32mi
1884 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	1.33mi
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	13d	1	1.33mi
2073 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,133	$1.17	23d	1	1.34mi
2183 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	1.41mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-24
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2016-08-16
   historical 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Make an offer on this Holiday Builder''s 3 bedroom, 2 bath home for a short sale. It has alarge famly room, master bath has a garden tub and his and hers sinks. Located just south of Bayside Lakes, come and see!!

4. 2010-07-01
   listed $79,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Make an offer on this Holiday Builder''s 3 bedroom, 2 bath home for a short sale. It has alarge famly room, master bath has a garden tub and his and hers sinks. Located just south of Bayside Lakes, come and see!!

5. 2005-11-30
   soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,137/yr (+$95/mo · 121.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$298
• After-tax cash flow: $3,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+252.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $250,000 SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2010-07-01 Listed $79,900 SCMLS
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.