441 Johnson St · Nash, TX 75569

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,203 sqft · Land · 353 Days on market

Built 1960 9,583 sqft lot $104/sqft · 20% below area Est $156k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

New paint and carpet as well as freshly painted

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#399 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Texarkana ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #472 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.73%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,200
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -19.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $75,276
• Equity at exit: $89,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $196,790
• Equity at exit: $171,675

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75569

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 N Pecan St Nash, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1350	$1,450	$1.07	43d	2	0.71mi
60 Clark St Nash, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	43d	2	1.35mi
3681 Cooper Ridge Dr Texarkana, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,398	$1.60	43d	3	1.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 344 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 343 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 341 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 338 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 334 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 333 DOM
17. 2026-01-09
    status Active 47-char remark

    Show marketing remark (47 chars)

    New paint and carpet as well as freshly painted

18. 2026-01-01
    historical 47-char remark

    Show marketing remark (47 chars)

    New paint and carpet as well as freshly painted

19. 2025-06-23
    listed $125,000 Active 47-char remark

    Show marketing remark (47 chars)

    New paint and carpet as well as freshly painted

20. 2002-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$897
• After-tax cash flow: $4,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texarkana ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842480
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,692
• Composite: 31.87/100
• National rank: #5867
• State rank: #472 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nash

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #399
• US rank: #8266

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nash, TX
• City population: 3,601
• Population (ZIP): 3,601

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.31%
• Current HPI: 152.7927
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Relisted — TBOR
• 2026-01-01 Delisted — TBOR
• 2025-06-23 Listed $125,000 TBOR
• 2002-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $168 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.