2120 Robins Ln SE #111 · Salem, OR 97306

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Manufactured public records · 272 Days on market

Built 1990 $121/sqft · 51% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely home with open floor plan and separate living & family rooms. Recent new carpeting and fresh interior paint. Kitchen upgrades boasts a newer dishwasher, oven, cooktop, vent hood and refrigerator. Free standing gas fireplace in family room adds that extra touch of warmth and comfort. Skylights in kitchen and primary bathroom. Partially enclosed front deck with security screen doors at both entrances. A separate finished 19’ x 12’ storage or hobby room on the back of the garage. Expansive deck on back.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Open floor plan
• Kitchen upgrades

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN UPGRADES
• COVERED DECK
• SECURITY SCREEN DOORS
• GAS STOVE
• SKYLIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.78%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,596
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 51.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2120 Robins Ln SE #180	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	2mo	$243,000	$136	91
2120 SE Robins Ln #145	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	5mo	$200,000	$112	88
2120 Robins Ln SE #185	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-4%)	5mo	$224,900	$130	78
2000 Robins Ln SE #34	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	11mo	$124,000	$70	77
2120 Robins Ln SE #202	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	11mo	$194,000	$120	69
2120 Robins Ln SE #38	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-10%)	13mo	$232,500	$143	68
2000 Robins Ln SE #40	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	6mo	$81,200	$50	66
2120 Robins Ln SE #128	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	14mo	$258,000	$159	66
2000 Robins Ln SE #9	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-12%)	4mo	$143,000	$90	64
2120 Robins Ln SE #207	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-12%)	10mo	$225,000	$141	62
2120 Robins Ln SE #101	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-12%)	14mo	$100,000	$63	51
2040 Navaho Ct SE	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-14%)	4mo	$94,999	$61	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,144
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $15,085
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97306

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,232/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6127 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,450	$1.60	43d	1	0.49mi
1951 Madras St SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1465	$1,975	$1.35	21d	1	0.53mi
5943 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	43d	1	0.62mi
6953 Talloc Ave SE Unit 6955 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,295	$1.62	14d	1	0.73mi
1544 Fircrest Ct SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1296	$1,850	$1.43	23d	1	0.78mi
5512 Murray St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,645	$2.07	21d	1	1.04mi
2772 Bastille Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,495	$1.55	21d	1	1.05mi
5423 Monterey Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,295	$1.58	23d	1	1.11mi
922 Rees Hill Rd SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	2333	$3,995	$1.71	43d	1	1.26mi
1250 Baxter Rd SE Unit 1276 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1289	$2,395	$1.86	14d	1	1.34mi
6755 Devon Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	2213	$3,100	$1.40	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 272 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 271 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 270 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 269 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 267 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 263 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 262 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 261 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 254 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,000 Active 253 DOM
15. 2026-04-19
    price $219,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Lovely home with open floor plan and separate living & family rooms. Recent new carpeting and fresh interior paint. Kitchen upgrades boasts a newer dishwasher, oven, cooktop, vent hood and refrigerator. Free standing gas fireplace in family room adds that extra touch of warmth and comfort. Skylights in kitchen and primary bathroom. Partially enclosed front deck with security screen doors at both entrances. A separate finished 19’ x 12’ storage or hobby room on the back of the garage. Expansive deck on back.

16. 2026-03-26
    price $226,990 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Lovely home with open floor plan and separate living & family rooms. Recent new carpeting and fresh interior paint. Kitchen upgrades boasts a newer dishwasher, oven, cooktop, vent hood and refrigerator. Free standing gas fireplace in family room adds that extra touch of warmth and comfort. Skylights in kitchen and primary bathroom. Partially enclosed front deck with security screen doors at both entrances. A separate finished 19’ x 12’ storage or hobby room on the back of the garage. Expansive deck on back.

17. 2026-01-31
    price $229,990 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Lovely home with open floor plan and separate living & family rooms. Recent new carpeting and fresh interior paint. Kitchen upgrades boasts a newer dishwasher, oven, cooktop, vent hood and refrigerator. Free standing gas fireplace in family room adds that extra touch of warmth and comfort. Skylights in kitchen and primary bathroom. Partially enclosed front deck with security screen doors at both entrances. A separate finished 19’ x 12’ storage or hobby room on the back of the garage. Expansive deck on back.

18. 2025-12-07
    price $229,999 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Lovely home with open floor plan and separate living & family rooms. Recent new carpeting and fresh interior paint. Kitchen upgrades boasts a newer dishwasher, oven, cooktop, vent hood and refrigerator. Free standing gas fireplace in family room adds that extra touch of warmth and comfort. Skylights in kitchen and primary bathroom. Partially enclosed front deck with security screen doors at both entrances. A separate finished 19’ x 12’ storage or hobby room on the back of the garage. Expansive deck on back.

19. 2025-10-24
    price $234,999 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Lovely home with open floor plan and separate living & family rooms. Recent new carpeting and fresh interior paint. Kitchen upgrades boasts a newer dishwasher, oven, cooktop, vent hood and refrigerator. Free standing gas fireplace in family room adds that extra touch of warmth and comfort. Skylights in kitchen and primary bathroom. Partially enclosed front deck with security screen doors at both entrances. A separate finished 19’ x 12’ storage or hobby room on the back of the garage. Expansive deck on back.

20. 2025-09-18
    listed $239,000 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Lovely home with open floor plan and separate living & family rooms. Recent new carpeting and fresh interior paint. Kitchen upgrades boasts a newer dishwasher, oven, cooktop, vent hood and refrigerator. Free standing gas fireplace in family room adds that extra touch of warmth and comfort. Skylights in kitchen and primary bathroom. Partially enclosed front deck with security screen doors at both entrances. A separate finished 19’ x 12’ storage or hobby room on the back of the garage. Expansive deck on back.

21. 2022-03-09
    soldstatus $227,500 Sold 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Must See! MH in Terrace Lake Park, gated 55+ community. Really nice floor plan makes for easy flow from living room to dining room through spacious kitchen to family room, w/gas stove. Large utility room with sink and access to hall bath. Skylights in kitchen and priority bedroom, with dual vanity. Tons of storage in home and 2-car garage, which has a 19.4x11.5 shop/hobby room. Enjoy nice backyard with large deck and landscaping to include front/back sprinklers. Welcome Home!

22. 2022-03-09
    soldstatus $227,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Must See! MH in Terrace Lake Park, gated 55+ community. Really nice floor plan makes for easy flow from living room to dining room through spacious kitchen to family room, w/gas stove. Large utility room with sink and access to hall bath. Skylights in kitchen and priority bedroom, with dual vanity. Tons of storage in home and 2-car garage, which has a 19.4x11.5 shop/hobby room. Enjoy nice backyard with large deck and landscaping to include front/back sprinklers. Welcome Home!

23. 2022-02-18
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Must See! MH in Terrace Lake Park, gated 55+ community. Really nice floor plan makes for easy flow from living room to dining room through spacious kitchen to family room, w/gas stove. Large utility room with sink and access to hall bath. Skylights in kitchen and priority bedroom, with dual vanity. Tons of storage in home and 2-car garage, which has a 19.4x11.5 shop/hobby room. Enjoy nice backyard with large deck and landscaping to include front/back sprinklers. Welcome Home!

24. 2022-02-18
    status Pending 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Must See! MH in Terrace Lake Park, gated 55+ community. Really nice floor plan makes for easy flow from living room to dining room through spacious kitchen to family room, w/gas stove. Large utility room with sink and access to hall bath. Skylights in kitchen and priority bedroom, with dual vanity. Tons of storage in home and 2-car garage, which has a 19.4x11.5 shop/hobby room. Enjoy nice backyard with large deck and landscaping to include front/back sprinklers. Welcome Home!

25. 2022-02-15
    listed $229,000 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Must See! MH in Terrace Lake Park, gated 55+ community. Really nice floor plan makes for easy flow from living room to dining room through spacious kitchen to family room, w/gas stove. Large utility room with sink and access to hall bath. Skylights in kitchen and priority bedroom, with dual vanity. Tons of storage in home and 2-car garage, which has a 19.4x11.5 shop/hobby room. Enjoy nice backyard with large deck and landscaping to include front/back sprinklers. Welcome Home!

26. 2022-02-15
    listed $229,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Must See! MH in Terrace Lake Park, gated 55+ community. Really nice floor plan makes for easy flow from living room to dining room through spacious kitchen to family room, w/gas stove. Large utility room with sink and access to hall bath. Skylights in kitchen and priority bedroom, with dual vanity. Tons of storage in home and 2-car garage, which has a 19.4x11.5 shop/hobby room. Enjoy nice backyard with large deck and landscaping to include front/back sprinklers. Welcome Home!

27. 2007-05-31
    soldstatus $99,900
28. 2007-05-12
    historical
29. 2007-05-02
    listed $99,900
30. 1989-06-16
    soldstatus $67,692

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,232 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,232 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,232
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $1,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$468
• After-tax cash flow: $4,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,383
• Household income: $101,753
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1437.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -335.25%
• Current HPI: 279.7875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+223.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $219,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $226,990 WVMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $229,990 WVMLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $229,999 WVMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $234,999 WVMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $239,000 WVMLS
• 2022-03-09 Sold (MLS) $227,500 WVMLS
• 2022-03-09 Sold (MLS) $227,500 RMLS
• 2022-02-18 Pending — WVMLS
• 2022-02-18 Pending — RMLS
• 2022-02-15 Listed $229,000 WVMLS
• 2022-02-15 Listed $229,000 RMLS
• 2007-05-31 Sold (MLS) $99,900 WVMLS
• 2007-05-12 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2007-05-02 Listed $99,900 WVMLS
• 1989-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $67,692 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,232 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.