1305 Erwin Rd · Dunn, NC 28334

$137,645

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1940 0.32 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Brick home is being Sold at Absolute auction on Wed. May 6th at 12:00 noon! Price is for MLS purposes only! 3 bedrooms and carport and fenced yard with a detached garage also. The new shingle roof will be in place prior to auction day!

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.32 acres; Living area reported as 1,840; Located on a city street with public maintenance (asphalt/paved)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with storage; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story site-built house; R-10 zoning; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built as a site-built house
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Partially wooded lot; Back yard chain-link fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Laundry room; Fenced yard; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.1% in Dunn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#390 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Triton High (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D-, #350 of 535 statewide, top 66%, 1,287 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $952 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.17%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 Erwin Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-0%)	0mo	$149,460	$81	97
59 Stout Lndg	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,744 (-6%)	0mo	$274,990	$158	79
78 Stout Lndg	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,744 (-6%)	1mo	$274,990	$158	79
220 Courtside Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,758 (-5%)	3mo	$279,900	$159	76
90 Stout Lndg	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+4%)	1mo	$289,990	$151	76
203 Courtside Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+5%)	3mo	$289,230	$150	76
95 Stout Lndg	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+4%)	0mo	$289,990	$151	76
138 Stout Lndg	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+4%)	0mo	$289,990	$151	76
165 Courtside Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,763 (-5%)	2mo	$274,900	$156	75
173 Courtside Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+5%)	3mo	$280,000	$145	75
401 Coleridge Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,642 (-11%)	1mo	$278,500	$170	69
213 Maye St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,719 (-7%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,657
• Equity at exit: $20,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $38,820
• Equity at exit: $11,901

Cash invested: $38,541 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28334

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$722
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,892/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,186

Max offer price $137,645

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $462	+0% $423	+5% $384	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $355	+0% $423	+5% $491	+10% $559
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $458	base $423	+0.5pp $387	+1.0pp $351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,411
• Closing costs: $4,129
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Jude Ct Dunn, NC	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	22d	1	0.47mi
1617 Friendly Rd Dunn, NC	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,975	$1.29	22d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $137,645
3. 2026-04-21
   price $149,500
4. 2026-04-18
   price $157,500
5. 2026-03-26
   listed $169,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,710
• − Property taxes: −$1,892
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$4,004
• Taxable income: $3,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$734
• After-tax cash flow: $4,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Dunn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #15160

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunn, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 22,873
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,873
• Household income: $53,036
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.76%
• Current HPI: 275.5055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $137,645 TMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $149,500 TMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $157,500 TMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $169,500 TMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,892 · +91.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.