23544 Blood River Rd · Killian, LA 70462

$175,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Built 1942 $142/sqft · 21% below area Est $223k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living on .68 acres Brand New septic system. Refrigerator & Gas stove to remain. Large workshop and yard. Very private and no restrictions. Kitchen updated in 2016.

Key facts

• Very private
• No restrictions
• Kitchen updated

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• VERY PRIVATE
• NO RESTRICTIONS
• KITCHEN UPDATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.2% in Killian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#333 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $175k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,884
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -21.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22920 Blood River Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,096 (-11%)	9mo	$208,000	$190	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $103,052
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $297,375
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70462

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $588/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,475

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24125 John McKigney Rd Springfield, LA	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,750	$1.28	44d	1	0.43mi
24143 John McKigney Rd Unit 6 Springfield, LA	3.0	2.0	1046	$1,500	$1.43	14d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-02-21
    listed $175,000 Active 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Country living on . 68 acres Brand New septic system. Refrigerator & Gas stove to remain. Large workshop and yard. Very private and no restrictions. Kitchen updated in 2016.

17. 2026-02-21
    listed $175,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Country living on . 68 acres Brand New septic system. Refrigerator & Gas stove to remain. Large workshop and yard. Very private and no restrictions. Kitchen updated in 2016.

18. 2025-08-05
    price $154,900
19. 2025-08-05
    price $154,900
20. 2025-07-01
    listed $160,000 Active
21. 2025-07-01
    listed $154,900 Active
22. 2017-10-20
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$374/yr (+$31/mo · 63.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$588
• − Insurance: −$2,378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$347
• After-tax cash flow: $1,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Killian

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #22333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,428

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 115.93%
• Current HPI: 389.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+191.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $175,000 GSREIN
• 2026-02-21 Listed $175,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $154,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $154,900 GSREIN
• 2025-07-01 Listed $154,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $160,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $588 · +27.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.