95159 Timberlake Dr · Yulee, FL 32034

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2017 6,969 sqft lot Est $339k · at est. $74/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PERFECT STARTER OR EMPTY NESTER HOME! Well maintained 3 bed/2 bath split plan in Timberlake subdivision, conveniently located to Fernandina Beach and the shops of Yulee. Extended patio is ready for screening for afternoons enjoying a breeze in the fenced back yard after coming from the community pool or playground. Ample closet space and large utility room for extra storage. Schedule your showing today to see the possibilities!

Key facts

• New vanity
• Single-level living
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• SEPARATED GUEST ROOMS
• OWNER'S SUITE
• NEW VANITY
• WALK IN SHOWER
• AMPLE COUNTER-SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Quarterly HOA fee: $222; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; PUD zoning; Built by Dr. Horton
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof; Irregular lot shape; Paved road access
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Rear screened porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floorplan; Cable TV available; Window treatments; Vinyl windows with blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 946 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $229k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,512 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,688
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
95159 Timberlake Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+0%)	1mo	$325,000	$215	99
95146 Timberlake Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+3%)	7mo	$305,000	$195	86
95116 Timberlake Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+3%)	8mo	$349,900	$224	82
95028 Cheswick Oaks Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+13%)	6mo	$460,000	$270	71
95318 Mistwood Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+14%)	3mo	$345,000	$201	68
95131 Timberlake Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+13%)	23mo	$344,000	$201	56
95152 Cypress Trl	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,576 (+4%)	14mo	$372,000	$236	55
97383 Harbor Concourse Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,727 (+14%)	23mo	$389,900	$226	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-66,398
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-78,791
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32034

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 946
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,265/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,796

Max offer price $296,838

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
95090 Timberlake Dr Fernandina Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,500	$1.35	15d	1	0.14mi
95152 Cypress Trl Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,600	$1.65	24d	1	0.55mi
95337 Katherine St Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,389	$1.33	24d	1	0.70mi
95353 Katherine St Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1795	$1,425	$0.79	17d	1	0.70mi
95425 Katherine St Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1749	$2,399	$1.37	8d	1	0.74mi
92008 Woodlawn Dr Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,400	$1.34	4d	1	1.37mi
95651 Woodbridge Pkwy Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,700	$1.74	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $329,000 Active
3. 2021-01-06
   soldstatus $229,000
4. 2021-01-04
   soldstatus $229,000 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   PERFECT STARTER OR EMPTY NESTER HOME! Well maintained 3 bed/2 bath split plan in Timberlake subdivision, conveniently located to Fernandina Beach and the shops of Yulee. Extended patio is ready for screening for afternoons enjoying a breeze in the fenced back yard after coming from the community pool or playground. Ample closet space and large utility room for extra storage. Schedule your showing today to see the possibilities!

5. 2020-12-01
   listed $229,000 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   PERFECT STARTER OR EMPTY NESTER HOME! Well maintained 3 bed/2 bath split plan in Timberlake subdivision, conveniently located to Fernandina Beach and the shops of Yulee. Extended patio is ready for screening for afternoons enjoying a breeze in the fenced back yard after coming from the community pool or playground. Ample closet space and large utility room for extra storage. Schedule your showing today to see the possibilities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$3,265
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,463
• − Management: −$2,463
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$7,942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,906
• After-tax cash flow: $-279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,029
• Household income: $98,583
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -576.71%
• Current HPI: 340.2096
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+43.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — AINCAR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $329,000 AINCAR
• 2021-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-04 Sold (MLS) $229,000 AINCAR
• 2020-12-01 Listed $229,000 AINCAR

Property tax history

+24.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,265 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.