6236 Knotty Pine Dr SE · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2000 6,826 sqft lot $65/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Garden Grove Oaks – a friendly, active 55+ community in beautiful Winter Haven and you OWN THE LAND! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home with a bonus office/den and Florida room offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and easy Florida living. Step inside and you’ll immediately appreciate the bright, open layout, featuring a spacious living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen provides ample storage and prep space, while the adjoining dining area creates a natural flow for everyday living. Outside, you’ll enjoy a low-maintenance yard, covered parking, and plenty of room for outdoor seating. Garden Grove Oaks re

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Covered parking
• Clubhouse

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• BONUS OFFICE
• FLORIDA ROOM
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• COVERED PARKING
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Third-party listing; Living area reported as 1,369 square feet; Lot approximately 0.16 acres (70 x 85)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $65 (total annual fees $780); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $65); Association requires approval; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs, with number limits); Buyer approval required; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/High‑speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Double wide; One story; Faces west; Entry level on one
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Exterior storage; Located on a cul-de-sac; Paved lot/driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Other heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Skylights; Den/Library/Office; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Outside laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garden Grove Elementary School (math 49% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 723 students, 46% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $145k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,441
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $15,485
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,744/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	14d	1	0.72mi
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	23d	1	0.72mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	23d	1	0.98mi
728 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	1.03mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,530	$1.49	3d	8	1.08mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,840	$1.98	2d	24	1.09mi
1707 Eagle Pond Dr Unit 1707 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.17mi
36 Enclave Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,990	$1.30	23d	1	1.17mi
508 Eagle Pond Dr #508 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.21mi
1202 Eagle Pond Dr Unit 1202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,450	$1.43	14d	1	1.22mi
1101 Eagle Pond Dr #1101 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,400	$1.38	23d	1	1.25mi
3904 Osprey Pointe Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,950	$1.14	23d	1	1.28mi
408 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,100	$1.43	23d	1	1.29mi
616 Crystals Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	23d	1	1.34mi
3601 Cypress Gardens Rd Unit 6 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	23d	1	1.41mi
206 Kingshill Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	3d	1	1.43mi
2065 Whispering Trails Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,000	$1.40	14d	1	1.48mi
3110 Gowan Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,841	$1.83	14d	24	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $145,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-05-14
    status Active
12. 2026-05-07
    status Pending
13. 2026-04-07
    status Active
14. 2026-04-07
    price $145,000
15. 2026-01-05
    listed $165,000 Active
16. 2025-12-30
    historical
17. 2025-11-29
    listed $170,000 Active
18. 2003-04-01
    soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,744 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,744 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,744
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$439
• After-tax cash flow: $3,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+62.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,744 · +173.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.