194 Route 202 · Lincolndale, NY 10589

$459,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1920 0.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Iconic early 20th century farmhouse on lovely flat parcel presents restoration opportunity. House has great bones and appears structurally sound but will require significant renovations. Four corner bedrooms, original five panel doors, walk-up partially finished attic with two additional rooms, full basement and new above ground oil tank. Being sold strictly "as is. "

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Open kitchen; Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Open kitchen; Partially finished walk-up attic; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $459k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#523 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Somers Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #95 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Primrose School (527 students, 10% FRL); Somers Middle School (math 43% / reading 69%, grade B-, #205 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 569 students, 9% FRL); Somers Senior High School (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 980 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $459,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $934,560
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Londonderry Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,088 (-12%)	3mo	$835,000	$400	63
9 David Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,132 (-10%)	6mo	$845,000	$396	60
34 Wilner Rd	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,292 (-3%)	24mo	$848,000	$370	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-5,394
• Equity at exit: $68,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $84,518
• Equity at exit: $39,686

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10589

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$610 /mo · $7,323/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $1,081

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,132

Max offer price $459,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,341	-5% $1,211	+0% $1,081	+5% $951	+10% $821
Rent	-10% $646	-5% $864	+0% $1,081	+5% $1,298	+10% $1,515
Rate	-1.0pp $1,312	-0.5pp $1,198	base $1,081	+0.5pp $962	+1.0pp $841

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Oak Ave Somers, NY	4.0	2.5	2600	$5,500	$2.12	45d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $459,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $459,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $459,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $459,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-25
   historical $459,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,323 · $610/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,540 · $628/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$7,323
• − Insurance: −$2,962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,280
• − Management: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable income: $6,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $11,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627180
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $111,661
• Composite: 64.82/100
• National rank: #516
• State rank: #95 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lincolndale

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #9242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.18%
• Current HPI: 262.6657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Coming Soon $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,323 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.