125 N Chippewa St · Shepherd, MI 48883

$103,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1930 9,583 sqft lot Est $113k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a HUD home case number 265-101024. Currently accepting Owner Occupant BIDS only. Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering 1,072 square feet in Shepherd! Situated on a great lot, this home has solid potential for a buyer ready to put in a little TLC and make it their own. With good bones and a functional layout, this property provides a great opportunity to build equity while creating the space youve been looking for.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Community sewer
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1930; Below-grade finished area: none
• Construction: Wood construction; Michigan basement foundation; Built in 1930
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Porch; Shed (outbuilding); Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Main level kitchen (11 x 17)
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (11 x 7); Main level bedroom (8 x 9); Upper level bedroom (approx. width 12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Formal dining room; Basement (Michigan style)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $103k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#119 in MI, #2,910 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shepherd Public Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #258 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Isabella County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $712 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isabella County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,455 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.10%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,560
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 N Chippewa St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+3%)	6mo	$115,000	$105	86
139 S Chippewa St Lot : 13	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-2%)	19mo	$80,000	$76	76
305 N Fourth St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-5%)	9mo	$163,400	$160	74
305 N Fourth St Lot : 40	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-5%)	9mo	$163,400	$160	74
139 S Chippewa St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-2%)	19mo	$80,000	$76	73
310 N 5th St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+3%)	13mo	$185,000	$168	71
205 N Union St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+11%)	10mo	$112,000	$94	69
279 E Orchard Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,179 (+10%)	13mo	$115,000	$98	64
309 W Orchard Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,197 (+12%)	12mo	$96,000	$80	52
8140 S Federal Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+3%)	16mo	$125,000	$114	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,457
• Equity at exit: $15,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $9,719
• Equity at exit: $8,906

Cash invested: $28,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48883

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $475/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $103,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,750
• Closing costs: $3,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $103,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $103,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $103,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $103,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $103,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $103,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $103,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $103,000 Pending 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $103,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $103,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $103,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $103,000 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This is a HUD home case number 265-101024. Currently accepting Owner Occupant BIDS only. Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering 1,072 square feet in Shepherd! Situated on a great lot, this home has solid potential for a buyer ready to put in a little TLC and make it their own. With good bones and a functional layout, this property provides a great opportunity to build equity while creating the space youve been looking for.

14. 2026-05-26
    listed $103,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This is a HUD home case number 265-101024. Currently accepting Owner Occupant BIDS only. Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering 1,072 square feet in Shepherd! Situated on a great lot, this home has solid potential for a buyer ready to put in a little TLC and make it their own. With good bones and a functional layout, this property provides a great opportunity to build equity while creating the space youve been looking for.

15. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $79,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great location! Great family home! 4 bedroom home in the Village of Shepherd. Brand new kitchen, new laminate, and new carpet. Freshly painted inside and outside. Within walking distance of everything! One car detached garage and a backyard for your kids to play or even a small garden!

16. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $79,900

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great location! Great family home! 4 bedroom home in the Village of Shepherd. Brand new kitchen, new laminate, and new carpet. Freshly painted inside and outside. Within walking distance of everything! One car detached garage and a backyard for your kids to play or even a small garden!

17. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $79,900

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great location! Great family home! 4 bedroom home in the Village of Shepherd. Brand new kitchen, new laminate, and new carpet. Freshly painted inside and outside. Within walking distance of everything! One car detached garage and a backyard for your kids to play or even a small garden!

18. 2019-05-26
    listed $79,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great location! Great family home! 4 bedroom home in the Village of Shepherd. Brand new kitchen, new laminate, and new carpet. Freshly painted inside and outside. Within walking distance of everything! One car detached garage and a backyard for your kids to play or even a small garden!

19. 2019-05-26
    listed $79,900

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Great location! Great family home! 4 bedroom home in the Village of Shepherd. Brand new kitchen, new laminate, and new carpet. Freshly painted inside and outside. Within walking distance of everything! One car detached garage and a backyard for your kids to play or even a small garden!

20. 2014-01-11
    historical
21. 2013-07-11
    listed $69,900
22. 2005-03-31
    soldstatus $68,050

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $475 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 116.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,770
• − Property taxes: −$475
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$2,996
• Taxable income: $489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2631380
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,528
• Composite: 31.31/100
• National rank: #6004
• State rank: #258 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #2910

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherd, MI
• Population (ZIP): 6,755

Population outlook (Isabella County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,111 people
• By 2030: 77,600 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 79,890 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 81,568 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 86,602 · +15.3%
• By 2100: 92,201 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Isabella

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.5% · R 53.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+9.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 178.4528
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+51.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $103,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-26 Listed $103,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2019-08-02 Sold (MLS) $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-02 Sold (MLS) $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-05-26 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-26 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-01-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-07-11 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $68,050 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $475 · -69.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.