844 County Road 6846 · Lytle, TX 78052

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1988 0.53 ac lot $111/sqft · 47% below area Est $226k · 47% under ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Investor's dream or build-to-suit opportunity in Lytle, TX! This 0.53-acre property features a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home and offers a prime location just moments from I-35 South for an easy commute. Whether you are looking for a renovation project or a spacious lot to build your custom dream home, this versatile property provides endless potential. Situated in a rapidly growing area with a generous lot size, it's a must-see for those seeking value and space. Buyer to verify all school district and tax information."

Key facts

• 0.53-acre property
• Spacious lot
• Prime location

Tags

• 0.53-ACRE PROPERTY
• PRIME LOCATION
• SPACIOUS LOT
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.76%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,714
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -46.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
922 County Road 6848	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+7%)	16mo	$250,000	$217	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $69,931
• Equity at exit: $77,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $179,137
• Equity at exit: $141,911

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,116/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $120,000 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    "Investor's dream or build-to-suit opportunity in Lytle, TX! This 0.53-acre property features a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home and offers a prime location just moments from I-35 South for an easy commute. Whether you are looking for a renovation project or a spacious lot to build your custom dream home, this versatile property provides endless potential. Situated in a rapidly growing area with a generous lot size, it's a must-see for those seeking value and space. Buyer to verify all school district and tax information."

17. 2026-04-04
    price $130,000 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    "Investor's dream or build-to-suit opportunity in Lytle, TX! This 0.53-acre property features a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home and offers a prime location just moments from I-35 South for an easy commute. Whether you are looking for a renovation project or a spacious lot to build your custom dream home, this versatile property provides endless potential. Situated in a rapidly growing area with a generous lot size, it's a must-see for those seeking value and space. Buyer to verify all school district and tax information."

18. 2026-03-11
    listed $140,000 New 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    "Investor's dream or build-to-suit opportunity in Lytle, TX! This 0.53-acre property features a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home and offers a prime location just moments from I-35 South for an easy commute. Whether you are looking for a renovation project or a spacious lot to build your custom dream home, this versatile property provides endless potential. Situated in a rapidly growing area with a generous lot size, it's a must-see for those seeking value and space. Buyer to verify all school district and tax information."

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,116
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $5,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $130,000 LERA
• 2026-03-11 Listed $140,000 LERA

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,116 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.