844 County Road 6846 · Lytle, TX 78052

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1988 Poor condition 0.53 ac lot $93/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Investor's dream or build-to-suit opportunity in Lytle, TX! This 0.53-acre property features a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home and offers a prime location just moments from I-35 South for an easy commute. Whether you are looking for a renovation project or a spacious lot to build your custom dream home, this versatile property provides endless potential. Situated in a rapidly growing area with a generous lot size, it's a must-see for those seeking value and space. Buyer to verify all school district and tax information."

Key facts

• 0.53-acre property
• Spacious lot
• Prime location

Tags

• 0.53-ACRE PROPERTY
• PRIME LOCATION
• SPACIOUS LOT
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.9% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.19%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,538
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -55.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
922 County Road 6848	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+7%)	20mo	$250,000	$217	53
494 Las Palomas	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	19mo	$119,999	$104	34
816 County Road 6723	2.11mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+17%)	6mo	$319,900	$254	31
309 Las Palomas	1.22mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+28%)	7mo	$293,000	$212	30
584 Las Palomas Dr	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	26mo	$175,000	$152	30
15132 Magnolia	2.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-17%)	8mo	$179,500	$199	29
356 County Road 6854	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+16%)	37mo	$284,000	$228	28
57 La Paz	1.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-29%)	9mo	$99,000	$129	27
125 County Road 6814	2.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-17%)	13mo	$319,000	$354	24
848 CR 6723	2.09mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	30mo	$329,900	$275	22
200 Heather Holw	2.05mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+18%)	21mo	$179,750	$140	18
119 Heather Cir	2.04mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+18%)	30mo	$200,000	$156	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $70,820
• Equity at exit: $64,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.30×
• Total profit: $176,419
• Equity at exit: $118,259

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $172,000 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 149 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +9.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,116/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $691	-5% $663	+0% $634	+5% $606	+10% $578
Rent	-10% $497	-5% $566	+0% $634	+5% $703	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $685	-0.5pp $660	base $634	+0.5pp $608	+1.0pp $582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $100,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $100,000 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 170 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 169 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 168 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 167 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $100,000 Active 166 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 165 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 164 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 163 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $100,000 Active 162 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $100,000 Active 161 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 160 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 159 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 158 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 157 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 156 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 155 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 154 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 153 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 152 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 151 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 150 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 149 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 148 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 147 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 146 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 145 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 142 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 138 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 137 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $100,000 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,116
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $6,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $54,000–$97,200 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof replacement, exterior siding and painting, HVAC system replacement, and landscaping improvements. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and in need of replacement.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping and curb appeal are minimal, with overgrown grass and a lack of maintenance.
• Major foundation/structure — The foundation and structure appear to be in poor condition, with visible cracks and wear.
• Major windows — The windows appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and painting — A new exterior siding and painting will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its resale value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale interior painting and flooring — A fresh coat of paint and new flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale foundation repair — A repaired foundation will improve the home's structural integrity and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale window replacement — New windows will improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Prospect Elementary School Middle Lytle J H F TX #1,122/1,662 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Lytle H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atascosa · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221
• Household income: $69,018
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $130,000 LERA
• 2026-03-11 Listed $140,000 LERA

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,116 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.