4675 Kickapoo Trl · Homestead Valley, CA 92285

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 1960 5.00 ac lot $320/sqft · 10% below area Est $222k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price-adjusted and off-road vehicles and furniture are also available; call me for the details. Seize this incredible opportunity to create your ideal desert sanctuary near Giant Rock, the Johnson Valley HOV area, and Joshua Tree National Park. This home has a main bedroom and two additional bunk bedrooms for flexibility and privacy. The home boasts breathtaking 360-degree views, inviting you to immerse yourself in peaceful desert surroundings. The large 5-acre parcel has room for the largest of dreams. Smartly designed vacation rentals are in the area, and due to its location, year-round activities are common. A stackable washer and dryer, an outdoor structure with multiple uses, many fence posts, and a large storage container are included. Imagine evenings under a sky full of stars, where you feel you can touch. The daily sunrises and sunsets are works of art. It's no wonder artists and musicians find inspiration here. Leave city life behind for the tranquility and inspiration the high desert offers. Come and stay, come and play!

Key facts

• Bunkbed rooms
• 5-acre parcel
• Giant rock

Tags

• GIANT ROCK
• JOHNSON VALLEY HOV AREA
• JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
• BUNKBED ROOMS
• 360-DEGREE VIEWS
• 5-ACRE PARCEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (39.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in Homestead Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,167 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $199k implies a 315% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,500 (39.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,836
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $91,216
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $281,887
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92285

• Home prices YoY: 31.4%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,029/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $151,620

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3890 N Jemez Trl Landers, CA	1.0	1.0	696	$1,195	$1.72	24d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    price $199,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Price-adjusted and off-road vehicles and furniture are also available; call me for the details. Seize this incredible opportunity to create your ideal desert sanctuary near Giant Rock, the Johnson Valley HOV area, and Joshua Tree National Park. This home has a main bedroom and two additional bunk bedrooms for flexibility and privacy. The home boasts breathtaking 360-degree views, inviting you to immerse yourself in peaceful desert surroundings. The large 5-acre parcel has room for the largest of dreams. Smartly designed vacation rentals are in the area, and due to its location, year-round activities are common. A stackable washer and dryer, an outdoor structure with multiple uses, many fence posts, and a large storage container are included. Imagine evenings under a sky full of stars, where you feel you can touch. The daily sunrises and sunsets are works of art. It's no wonder artists and musicians find inspiration here. Leave city life behind for the tranquility and inspiration the high desert offers. Come and stay, come and play!

16. 2025-12-26
    listed $210,000 Active 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Price-adjusted and off-road vehicles and furniture are also available; call me for the details. Seize this incredible opportunity to create your ideal desert sanctuary near Giant Rock, the Johnson Valley HOV area, and Joshua Tree National Park. This home has a main bedroom and two additional bunk bedrooms for flexibility and privacy. The home boasts breathtaking 360-degree views, inviting you to immerse yourself in peaceful desert surroundings. The large 5-acre parcel has room for the largest of dreams. Smartly designed vacation rentals are in the area, and due to its location, year-round activities are common. A stackable washer and dryer, an outdoor structure with multiple uses, many fence posts, and a large storage container are included. Imagine evenings under a sky full of stars, where you feel you can touch. The daily sunrises and sunsets are works of art. It's no wonder artists and musicians find inspiration here. Leave city life behind for the tranquility and inspiration the high desert offers. Come and stay, come and play!

17. 2025-12-10
    historical
18. 2025-06-19
    listed $220,000 Active
19. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus $48,000 Closed
20. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus $48,000
21. 2014-02-12
    status Pending
22. 2014-01-08
    price $45,000
23. 2013-11-12
    listed $50,000 Active
24. 2011-11-15
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
25. 2011-10-20
    historical
26. 2011-09-24
    listed $19,000 Active
27. 2000-08-30
    soldstatus $25,000
28. 1985-04-11
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 47.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,029
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Homestead Valley

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1167
• US rank: #25885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homestead Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,914

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 128.05%
• Current HPI: 536.4822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1374.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2014-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-28 Sold (MLS) $48,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-01-08 Price Changed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2013-11-12 Listed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2011-11-15 Sold (MLS) $25,000 GPSMLS
• 2011-10-20 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2011-09-24 Listed $19,000 GPSMLS
• 2000-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1985-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,029 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.