468 S Paseo Lobo Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$110,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 33 Days on market

Built 1964 Fair condition $315/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy stunning mountain views from the newly painted and paved patio. Lots of light in this charming, one bedroom that sleeps four with sofa bed. Turnkey unit, ready for rental market or yours to enjoy. Great AirBnb opportunity. Includes valuable GVR membership! Two community pools, parks and paths right outside your door, while Tucson and Tubac are minutes away. Easy living with this beautifully furnished unit.Steps away from one of the four community pools, this 1 BR/1 BA unit offers carefree living in a parkside setting across street from shopping dining and recreation. HOA covers major utilities and structural repairs, including AC, heat, water, garbage. Ideal investment property or enjoy yourself!

Key facts

• Steps from the park
• Scenic walking paths
• Bungalow style

Tags

• BUNGALOW STYLE
• VINTAGE STOVE
• OPEN SHELF KITCHEN
• STEPS FROM THE PARK
• TWO POOLS
• SCENIC WALKING PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property subtype: Condominium; Zoning: Pima County - TR
• HOA & community: HOA provides maintenance and laundry facilities; Monthly HOA fee of $315; HOA fee covers common area maintenance, exterior unit maintenance, roof repair and roof replacement; Community amenities include pool, spa, jogging/bike path, paved streets and park; Road maintenance is the responsibility of the HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio or porch; Masonry fencing; East/West exposure; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Ceramic tile flooring throughout
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available via association

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($617/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-10,505
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $12,514
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$315
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $89	+0% $51	+5% $13	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-5	+0% $51	+5% $108	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $79	base $51	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	17d	1	0.03mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	17d	1	0.03mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.04mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.13mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.16mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.18mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.19mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.23mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.23mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.37mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.44mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $315 · $3,780/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    listed $110,000 Active
15. 2024-12-16
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Enjoy stunning mountain views from the newly painted and paved patio. Lots of light in this charming, one bedroom that sleeps four with sofa bed. Turnkey unit, ready for rental market or yours to enjoy. Great AirBnb opportunity. Includes valuable GVR membership! Two community pools, parks and paths right outside your door, while Tucson and Tubac are minutes away. Easy living with this beautifully furnished unit.Steps away from one of the four community pools, this 1 BR/1 BA unit offers carefree living in a parkside setting across street from shopping dining and recreation. HOA covers major utilities and structural repairs, including AC, heat, water, garbage. Ideal investment property or enjoy yourself!

16. 2024-12-13
    status Pending 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Enjoy stunning mountain views from the newly painted and paved patio. Lots of light in this charming, one bedroom that sleeps four with sofa bed. Turnkey unit, ready for rental market or yours to enjoy. Great AirBnb opportunity. Includes valuable GVR membership! Two community pools, parks and paths right outside your door, while Tucson and Tubac are minutes away. Easy living with this beautifully furnished unit.Steps away from one of the four community pools, this 1 BR/1 BA unit offers carefree living in a parkside setting across street from shopping dining and recreation. HOA covers major utilities and structural repairs, including AC, heat, water, garbage. Ideal investment property or enjoy yourself!

17. 2024-12-03
    historical Active Contingent 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Enjoy stunning mountain views from the newly painted and paved patio. Lots of light in this charming, one bedroom that sleeps four with sofa bed. Turnkey unit, ready for rental market or yours to enjoy. Great AirBnb opportunity. Includes valuable GVR membership! Two community pools, parks and paths right outside your door, while Tucson and Tubac are minutes away. Easy living with this beautifully furnished unit.Steps away from one of the four community pools, this 1 BR/1 BA unit offers carefree living in a parkside setting across street from shopping dining and recreation. HOA covers major utilities and structural repairs, including AC, heat, water, garbage. Ideal investment property or enjoy yourself!

18. 2024-09-17
    listed $126,500 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Enjoy stunning mountain views from the newly painted and paved patio. Lots of light in this charming, one bedroom that sleeps four with sofa bed. Turnkey unit, ready for rental market or yours to enjoy. Great AirBnb opportunity. Includes valuable GVR membership! Two community pools, parks and paths right outside your door, while Tucson and Tubac are minutes away. Easy living with this beautifully furnished unit.Steps away from one of the four community pools, this 1 BR/1 BA unit offers carefree living in a parkside setting across street from shopping dining and recreation. HOA covers major utilities and structural repairs, including AC, heat, water, garbage. Ideal investment property or enjoy yourself!

19. 2024-06-10
    historical
20. 2024-04-10
    price $126,500
21. 2024-02-23
    listed $129,000 Active
22. 2022-02-16
    status Pending
23. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $105,500 Closed
24. 2022-02-03
    historical Active Contingent
25. 2022-01-29
    status Signature Pending
26. 2022-01-27
    status Active
27. 2022-01-05
    historical Active Contingent
28. 2022-01-05
    historical
29. 2022-01-01
    listed $105,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − HOA: −$3,780
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming 1BR/1BA bungalow-style condo requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting, updating the kitchen backsplash, and landscaping will significantly enhance its curb appeal and overall value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen backsplash — Visible wear and tear on the backsplash.
• Moderate Kitchen cabinetry — Signs of wear and tear on the cabinetry.
• Minor Bathtub — No major issues, but some discoloration.
• Minor Sink — No major issues, but some discoloration.
• Moderate Carpet — Signs of wear and tear.
• Minor Exterior brickwork — Some discoloration and minor wear.
• Minor Landscaping — Sparse and in need of maintenance.
• Minor Screens — Signs of wear and tear on some screens.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating the kitchen backsplash — Improves the overall appearance and value of the home.
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Replacing worn-out screens — Improves the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both Deep cleaning and staging — Prepares the home for showings and potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen backsplash · Visible wear and tear on the backsplash.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen cabinetry · Signs of wear and tear on the cabinetry.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathtub · No major issues, but some discoloration.	Minor	$500–3,000
Sink · No major issues, but some discoloration.	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpet · Signs of wear and tear.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior brickwork · Some discoloration and minor wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Sparse and in need of maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Screens · Signs of wear and tear on some screens.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$11,500–60,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating the kitchen backsplash — Improves the overall appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Replacing worn-out screens — Improves the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Deep cleaning and staging — Prepares the home for showings and potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-16 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-13 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-03 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-17 Listed $126,500 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-10 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $126,500 MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-23 Listed $129,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-16 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) $105,500 MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-03 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-29 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-27 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-05 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-05 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-01 Listed $105,950 MLSSAZ