7375 Saint Joseph Rd · Niagara Falls, NY 14304

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1959 0.29 ac lot $172/sqft · 20% below area Est $300k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 7375 St. Joseph’s Rd in the Town of Niagara, a well-maintained and spacious Ranch home offering comfort, flexibility, and a great setting on a quiet neighborhood street. This 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home features a functional layout with both a bright living room and a cozy family room, providing plenty of space to relax or entertain, a formal dining area is perfect for gatherings, while the primary bedroom includes its own en suite bath for added convenience. Looking for extra space? There’s excellent potential for a 4th bedroom, plus a partially finished basement ready for a rec room, home gym, hobbies, or additional living space. Step outside to a fully vinyl-fenced

Key facts

• Bright living room
• Cozy family room
• Formal dining area

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• EN SUITE BATH
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• FULLY VINYL-FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Main-level entry
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation; Resale property
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / exterior storage; Rectangular residential lot with 80 x 160 dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Tile; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air; Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning; Circuit breaker electrical
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Sliding glass doors; Solid surface counters; Natural woodwork; Bedroom on main level; Convertible bedroom; Bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #163 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Edward Town Middle School (math 37% / reading 60%, grade C-, #300 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 736 students, 47% FRL); Niagara-Wheatfield Senior High School (math 95% / reading 97%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,092 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 25% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $240k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $157,721 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,097
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -20.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7399 Sunnydale Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-4%)	11mo	$352,000	$263	81
3210 Woodland Ave	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,248 (-10%)	4mo	$170,000	$136	71
3165 Jordan Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-13%)	2mo	$148,000	$122	54
4450 Miller Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+10%)	2mo	$267,000	$174	48
7721 E Britton Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-12%)	23mo	$190,000	$154	42
7630 Dean Brown Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-14%)	20mo	$250,000	$208	42
6110 Edgewood Dr	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,528 (+10%)	15mo	$325,000	$213	31
6300 Edgewood Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,536 (+10%)	23mo	$222,000	$145	25
6210 Edgewood Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-13%)	24mo	$138,000	$114	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-49,082
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-56,252
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14304

• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,777

Max offer price $211,952

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-90	+0% $-158	+5% $-226	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-221	+0% $-158	+5% $-96	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-97	base $-158	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $239,900 1126-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $255,900 Active 1126-char remark
3. 1999-07-07
   soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,750/yr (+$146/mo · 315.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$6,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,505
• After-tax cash flow: $-393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620850
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,051
• Composite: 57.53/100
• National rank: #1067
• State rank: #163 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,208
• Household income: $66,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 698.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.77%
• Current HPI: 280.3295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+179.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $239,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $255,900 WNYREIS
• 1999-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.