Napa Plan · Connerton, FL 34638

$245,100

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,486 sqft · Townhouse · 54 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers lavish living with two luxurious owner's suites, each featuring an en-suite bathroom with a dual-sink vanity and walk-in closet. The main part of the home is host to a flexible and spacious open-concept design shared between the kitchen and living room that flows effortlessly to a covered lanai for seamless indoor-outdoor experiences.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Walk-in closet
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,100; Inventory type: Plan

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Napa); Located in Land O Lakes, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1486

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Napa)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($702/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,816 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-42,457
• Equity at exit: $36,545

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-57,158
• Equity at exit: $21,192

Cash invested: $68,628 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,676/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $245,100

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $143	+0% $59	+5% $-26	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-29	+0% $59	+5% $146	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $121	base $59	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,275
• Closing costs: $7,353
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.34mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	26d	1	0.63mi
10179 Gliding Eagle Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,800	$1.53	19d	1	0.93mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	26d	1	1.06mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	16d	1	1.06mi
11070 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	1.08mi
11071 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	25d	1	1.09mi
10735 Hawks Landing Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,495	$1.35	16d	1	1.11mi
10981 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,000	$1.12	22d	1	1.14mi
17784 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,450	$1.60	26d	1	1.14mi
18039 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,895	$1.91	26d	1	1.15mi
11147 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	26d	1	1.16mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	26d	1	1.22mi
11236 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	1.23mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,095	$1.38	26d	1	1.24mi
11103 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,350	$1.32	26d	1	1.25mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,195	$1.31	7d	1	1.26mi
11115 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,250	$1.35	26d	1	1.26mi
11450 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	19d	1	1.38mi
17608 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,100 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,100 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,100 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,100 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $245,100 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $244,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $244,600 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,600 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $244,600 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,600 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $249,600 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,729
• − Property taxes: −$3,676
• − Insurance: −$1,226
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,129
• − Management: −$2,129
• − Depreciation: −$7,130
• Taxable loss: −$3,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $1,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story townhouse is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's value
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's value ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B