856 Kentucky St · Gary, IN 46402

$38,800

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 282 Days on market

Built 1948 6,229 sqft lot $18/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-Bedroom investor special! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of space and potential. Situated on a quiet dead-end street with a large backyard, it features a full basement that provides options for additional living space, this property can become a wonderful home or a strong addition to an investment portfolio. bring your vision, roll up your sleeves, and turn this opportunity into your next big return. ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. ANYONE ACCESSING THE PROPERTY DOES SO VOLUNTARILY AND ACCEPTS FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS OR CONDITIONS PRESENT. THE SELLER AND THEIR BROKER SHALL NOT BE HELD LIABLE FOR ANY INJURIES, DAMAGES, LOSSES, OR INCONVENIENCES THAT MAY OCCUR DURING, OR AS A RESULT OF, INSPECTING THE PROPERTY OR DUE TO ITS CONDITION.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Full basement
• 6,229 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $894 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.9% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,440/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $268 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,144 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.76%
• DSCR: 5.39
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,409
• List price: $38,800
• Delta: -54.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
853 Louisiana St	0.22mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,110 (-1%)	10mo	$80,000	$38	73
701 Tennessee St	0.22mi	4/1.0	2,150 (+1%)	18mo	$45,000	$21	69
673 Vermont St	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,358 (+11%)	16mo	$30,000	$13	58
661 Louisiana St	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,358 (+11%)	13mo	$159,500	$68	56
1629 Tennessee St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-14%)	0mo	$210,000	$115	46
1136 Maryland St	0.52mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (-10%)	14mo	$45,000	$23	40
1116 E Delaware St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-14%)	16mo	$170,500	$93	32
1543 Tennessee St	0.58mi	4/1.0	1,840 (-14%)	19mo	$83,000	$45	31
1518 Kentucky St	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,872 (-12%)	22mo	$103,000	$55	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $50,666
• Equity at exit: $5,785

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.81×
• Total profit: $117,474
• Equity at exit: $3,355

Cash invested: $10,864 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46402

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$203
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $283/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $894

Break-even live

Break-even rent $308

Max offer price $38,800

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $916	-5% $905	+0% $894	+5% $883	+10% $872
Rent	-10% $780	-5% $837	+0% $894	+5% $951	+10% $1,008
Rate	-1.0pp $914	-0.5pp $904	base $894	+0.5pp $884	+1.0pp $874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,700
• Closing costs: $1,164
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1030 E 6th Ave Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,600	$1.14	0d	1	0.38mi
1109 Maryland St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1982	$1,000	$0.50	0d	1	0.44mi
1109 Maryland St Unit 1 Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1982	$1,000	$0.50	0d	1	0.44mi
2034 Central Dr Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1615	$1,700	$1.05	4d	1	1.04mi
1744 Tyler St Unit 2 Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	1.43mi
1572 Polk St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	0d	1	1.44mi
803 Pierce St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $38,800 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,800 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,800 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,800 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,800 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,800 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,800 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,800 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,800 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,800 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $38,800 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,800 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,800 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,800 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,800 Active 261 DOM
16. 2025-09-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Spacious 4-Bedroom investor special! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of space and potential. Situated on a quiet dead-end street with a large backyard, it features a full basement that provides options for additional living space, this property can become a wonderful home or a strong addition to an investment portfolio. bring your vision, roll up your sleeves, and turn this opportunity into your next big return. ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. ANYONE ACCESSING THE PROPERTY DOES SO VOLUNTARILY AND ACCEPTS FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS OR CONDITIONS PRESENT. THE SELLER AND THEIR BROKER SHALL NOT BE HELD LIABLE FOR ANY INJURIES, DAMAGES, LOSSES, OR INCONVENIENCES THAT MAY OCCUR DURING, OR AS A RESULT OF, INSPECTING THE PROPERTY OR DUE TO ITS CONDITION.

17. 2025-09-12
    listed $38,800 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Spacious 4-Bedroom investor special! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of space and potential. Situated on a quiet dead-end street with a large backyard, it features a full basement that provides options for additional living space, this property can become a wonderful home or a strong addition to an investment portfolio. bring your vision, roll up your sleeves, and turn this opportunity into your next big return. ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. ANYONE ACCESSING THE PROPERTY DOES SO VOLUNTARILY AND ACCEPTS FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS OR CONDITIONS PRESENT. THE SELLER AND THEIR BROKER SHALL NOT BE HELD LIABLE FOR ANY INJURIES, DAMAGES, LOSSES, OR INCONVENIENCES THAT MAY OCCUR DURING, OR AS A RESULT OF, INSPECTING THE PROPERTY OR DUE TO ITS CONDITION.

18. 2025-07-17
    price $40,000
19. 2025-06-25
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $283 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $307 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,173
• − Property taxes: −$283
• − Insurance: −$194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$1,129
• Taxable income: $10,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,576
• After-tax cash flow: $8,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 5,836
• Household income: $33,529
• Rent vs Own: 56.6% rent · 43.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 336.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% Two or more races 5% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Current HPI: 250.2464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-12 Listed $38,800 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $40,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Listed $50,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-20.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $283 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.