2137 Black Oak Ln · Conley, GA 30294

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,153 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2006 6,098 sqft lot $139/sqft · 10% below area Est $333k · 10% under $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2137 Black Oak Lane in Ellenwood, GA where space, comfort, and convenience come together! This beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers a functional layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to find an open-concept kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living areas, making it ideal for hosting family and friends while preparing meals. The home features a massive primary suite, providing a private retreat with ample space to relax and unwind. One of the standout features is the custom sunroom, offering additional living space filled with natural light perfect for morning coffee, a home office, or year-round enjoyment. Outside, y

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Custom sunroom
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CUSTOM SUNROOM
• LARGE FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• PROXIMITY TO LOCAL MARKETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: City street frontage; Located in Dekalb County
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $285 covering grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Two-story home; Brick front with vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof; ENERGY STAR Certified home
• Construction: Brick front and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private backyard; Back yard wood fencing; Awning(s); Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with breakfast area and pantry; Open view to the family room; Gas range; Microwave; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Oversized primary suite; Roommate floor plan; Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom with double vanity, separate tub and shower, soaking tub, and vaulted ceiling
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Low-flow plumbing fixtures; Walk-in closets; Bay windows; Double-pane windows; Window treatments; One fireplace in the family room; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry in hall/laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#299 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #873 of 1,228 statewide, top 71%, 565 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #433 of 470 statewide, top 93%, 777 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,123 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,107 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,352
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -10.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2153 Pine View Trl	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,258 (+5%)	8mo	$275,000	$122	82
2114 Black Oak Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,258 (+5%)	11mo	$292,500	$130	80
4111 Village Crossing Cir	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,120 (-2%)	5mo	$339,000	$160	70
4376 Grant Forest Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,990 (-8%)	11mo	$295,000	$148	69
2243 Pine View Trl	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,438 (+13%)	7mo	$320,000	$131	67
2309 Pine View Trl	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,967 (-9%)	7mo	$260,000	$132	66
3891 Village Crossing Ln	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+10%)	5mo	$339,000	$143	60
2680 Lower Village Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+10%)	10mo	$352,000	$148	59
2535 Brookgate Xing	0.47mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,252 (+5%)	9mo	$284,000	$126	56
4425 Boulder Springs Cv	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,442 (+13%)	5mo	$278,999	$114	40
3943 Brookgate Ct	0.62mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,402 (+12%)	10mo	$300,000	$125	39
2825 Ellenwood Village Way	0.45mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,442 (+13%)	11mo	$380,000	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,698
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-46,451
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,871/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,588

Max offer price $269,669

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-86	+0% $-171	+5% $-256	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-265	+0% $-171	+5% $-77	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-95	base $-171	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2135 Pine View Trl Ellenwood, GA	5.0	3.0	2282	$2,300	$1.01	7d	1	0.03mi
4197 Grant Forest Cir Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,300	$1.04	45d	1	0.17mi
2274 Silver Maple Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	26d	1	0.19mi
2010 Redwood Trce Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,079	$1.02	24d	1	0.29mi
4265 Loveless Pl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,715	$1.20	24d	1	0.46mi
2532 Brookgate Xing Ellenwood, GA	5.0	2.0	1438	$1,995	$1.39	7d	1	0.49mi
2503 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,215	$1.15	22d	1	0.51mi
3912 Old Ivy Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.5	1718	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.52mi
2334 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	5.0	2.5	2318	$2,245	$0.97	7d	1	0.64mi
2340 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,024	$1.05	22d	1	0.64mi
2141 Silva Ct Conley, GA	4.0	2.5	2097	$2,180	$1.04	26d	1	0.68mi
1793 Cedar Walk Ln Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	2143	$1,950	$0.91	45d	1	0.68mi
4095 Gracewood Park Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	2394	$2,389	$1.00	24d	1	0.76mi
4149 Connor Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2300	$1,975	$0.86	7d	1	0.81mi
3679 Bouldercrest Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.87mi
3691 Connor Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	45d	1	0.89mi
4284 Cedar Lake Cv Conley, GA	5.0	3.0	2656	$3,000	$1.13	14d	1	0.89mi
3981 Ivy Trace Ln Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,184	$1.36	26d	1	0.94mi
2016 Smithfield Ave Ellenwood, GA	5.0	3.0	2880	$2,670	$0.93	1d	1	0.98mi
4153 Ward Lake Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,930	$1.32	45d	1	1.22mi
2882 Ward Lake Way Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1685	$1,676	$0.99	45d	1	1.32mi
4136 Moore Rd Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,981	$1.05	45d	1	1.39mi
2327 Tolliver Pl Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1688	$2,111	$1.25	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-05-07
   status Back On Market 1449-char remark
3. 2026-05-07
   status Active 1461-char remark
4. 2026-05-06
   status Under Contract 1449-char remark
5. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1461-char remark
6. 2026-04-24
   listed $299,900 New 1449-char remark
7. 2026-04-24
   listed $299,900 Active 1461-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,871 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,871 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,871
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,748
• After-tax cash flow: $-306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Conley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #16248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 8,116
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $299,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $299,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,871 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.