2615 Olive St · Vernon, TX 76384

$49,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1935 7,200 sqft lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special- This house won't last long so come and check out today! Offered at land value *Render shown represents the potential outcome of the property after repairs-Please view ALL Photos*, this property presents a compelling opportunity for buyers looking to add value. The seller has never occupied the home, which will require updates to achieve market standards. The large front and back yards provide flexibility for enhancement or expansion, while the detached garage with an apartment above offers potential for rental income, multigenerational living, or a creative conversion.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1935

Tags

• LARGE FRONT AND BACK YARDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,078 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Vernon ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #673 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19 units permitted in Wilbarger County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilbarger County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.48%
• DSCR: 7.34
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.99×
• Total profit: $95,852
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.83×
• Total profit: $217,233
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76384

• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $1,629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $438

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,657	-5% $1,643	+0% $1,629	+5% $1,615	+10% $1,601
Rent	-10% $1,431	-5% $1,530	+0% $1,629	+5% $1,728	+10% $1,826
Rate	-1.0pp $1,654	-0.5pp $1,641	base $1,629	+0.5pp $1,616	+1.0pp $1,603

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2631 Sunset Dr Vernon, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$2,500	$1.31	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-02-24
   price $49,000 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Investor Special- This house won't last long so come and check out today! Offered at land value *Render shown represents the potential outcome of the property after repairs-Please view ALL Photos*, this property presents a compelling opportunity for buyers looking to add value. The seller has never occupied the home, which will require updates to achieve market standards. The large front and back yards provide flexibility for enhancement or expansion, while the detached garage with an apartment above offers potential for rental income, multigenerational living, or a creative conversion.

8. 2026-02-06
   listed $50,000 Active 593-char remark

   Show marketing remark (593 chars)

   Investor Special- This house won't last long so come and check out today! Offered at land value *Render shown represents the potential outcome of the property after repairs-Please view ALL Photos*, this property presents a compelling opportunity for buyers looking to add value. The seller has never occupied the home, which will require updates to achieve market standards. The large front and back yards provide flexibility for enhancement or expansion, while the detached garage with an apartment above offers potential for rental income, multigenerational living, or a creative conversion.

9. 2023-03-16
   soldstatus
10. 2002-10-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $19,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,791
• After-tax cash flow: $14,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844110
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,161
• Composite: 23.7/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #673 of 826 in TX

Livability — Vernon

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1078
• US rank: #19117

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon, TX
• City population: 12,239
• Population (ZIP): 12,239

Population outlook (Wilbarger County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,496 people
• By 2030: 12,234 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 11,769 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 11,375 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 10,532 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 9,071 · -27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilbarger

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.6) · D 19.3% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -60.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.6 2020: R+56.8 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+49.9 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.65%
• Current HPI: 110.9147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $50,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $824 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.