4514 W Katie Cir · Prescott Valley, AZ 86314

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 661 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1973 6,534 sqft lot $241/sqft · 17% below area Est $192k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-Bedroom, 1-Bath Starter Homein Central Prescott Valley. This affordable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home isperfect for first-time buyers or investorslooking for a solid opportunity. It features aconvenient carport plus a spacious extrastorage unit/workshop with electricity--idealfor hobbies, tools, or additional storage. Priced to sell and located right in the heartof Prescott Valley, this home offers easyaccess to shopping, restaurants, schools, and everything the area has to offer. Don'tmiss out on this centrally located gem!

Key facts

• Central location
• Carport
• Storage unit

Tags

• CARPORT
• STORAGE UNIT
• WORKSHOP
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets: domestics allowed; Zoning: R1MH; Subdivision: Prescott Valley 5
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space; Attached carport
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Electric service with 220 volts
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Single-wide; 1 story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawl space with piers
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Driveway with dirt and gravel; Front and rear landscaping; Shed(s); Back yard and perimeter fencing; Level lot; City-maintained street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Room refrigeration (window/room AC); Other heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen with laminate counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Storage area; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Prescott Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#126 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 447 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $159k implies a 524% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,689
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -17.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8473 E Ackland Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	678 (+3%)	19mo	$155,000	$229	69
4400 N Ranger Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0	721 (+9%)	19mo	$135,100	$187	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,939
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,827
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86314

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $293	+0% $238	+5% $184	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $172	+0% $238	+5% $305	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $279	base $238	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4561 N Preston Dr Apt 3 Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	624	$1,700	$2.72	44d	1	0.07mi
4561 N Preston Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	624	$1,650	$2.64	44d	1	0.07mi
3830 N Windsong Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,034	$1.85	14d	22	0.99mi
8113 E Long Mesa Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,500	$2.44	21d	1	1.20mi
3279 N Corrine Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	738	$1,400	$1.90	44d	1	1.28mi
8683 E Commons Cir Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,785	$2.14	14d	5	1.35mi
3184 N Truwood Dr Unit D Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	21d	1	1.36mi
3901 N Main St Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,910	$1.95	14d	16	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $159,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $169,000 Active 532-char remark
17. 1993-11-01
    soldstatus $25,500
18. 1984-03-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$84
• After-tax cash flow: $2,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humboldt Unified District (4469)
• NCES district ID: 0403870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,326
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6605
• State rank: #94 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Prescott Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #16160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prescott Valley, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 63,155
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 40,317
• Household income: $69,208
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1236.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.27%
• Current HPI: 370.04
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1308.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $169,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records
• 1984-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $253 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.