8227 Montego Bay Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$308,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,987 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2009 6,882 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $304k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This beautifully updated 4-bedroom home offers a highly desirable layout with the primary suite downstairs and 3 spacious bedrooms plus a large gameroom upstairs—perfect for flexible living. The owners suite features two closets, providing ample storage. Enjoy fresh, updated paint and modern lighting fixtures that create a bright, inviting feel throughout. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the living area, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room to play, relax, or add a pool, plus a covered patio perfect for outdoor gatherings. Located in Barbers Hill (known for low tax rates and award-winning schools) this home checks all the boxes for comfort, space, and value. Don’t miss this one!

Key facts

• Two closets
• Open-concept kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE DOWNSTAIRS
• LARGE GAMEROOM UPSTAIRS
• TWO CLOSETS
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,177 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,771
• List price: $308,000
• Delta: 1.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8323 Egret Bay Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+1%)	4mo	$317,000	$159	78
8338 Bay Oaks Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,078 (+5%)	3mo	$348,587	$168	74
8215 Montego Bay Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (-11%)	1mo	$329,000	$185	73
8402 Piping Rock St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,931 (-3%)	3mo	$319,900	$166	72
4618 Legends Bay Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,230 (+12%)	1mo	$340,000	$152	71
8427 Baywatch Cir	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-3%)	4mo	$315,000	$164	71
8331 Quiet Bay Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,113 (+6%)	2mo	$314,900	$149	68
5011 Cotton Creek Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,238 (+13%)	2mo	$344,900	$154	60
4610 Legends Bay Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (-15%)	1mo	$295,000	$174	59
8306 Sweet Bay Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-13%)	3mo	$287,500	$166	58
8335 Quiet Bay Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,194 (+10%)	3mo	$325,000	$148	58
5527 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+3%)	2mo	$249,000	$122	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,132
• Equity at exit: $45,924

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-55,903
• Equity at exit: $26,630

Cash invested: $86,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,193/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,687

Max offer price $284,902

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-44	+0% $-131	+5% $-218	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-230	+0% $-131	+5% $-31	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-52	base $-131	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,000
• Closing costs: $9,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	23d	1	0.13mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	25d	1	0.30mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	25d	1	0.64mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	25d	1	0.66mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	0.83mi
12820 Langston Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$2,843	$2.64	0d	259	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $308,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $308,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $308,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $308,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Welcome home! This beautifully updated 4-bedroom home offers a highly desirable layout with the primary suite downstairs and 3 spacious bedrooms plus a large gameroom upstairs—perfect for flexible living. The owners suite features two closets, providing ample storage. Enjoy fresh, updated paint and modern lighting fixtures that create a bright, inviting feel throughout. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the living area, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of room to play, relax, or add a pool, plus a covered patio perfect for outdoor gatherings. Located in Barbers Hill (known for low tax rates and award-winning schools) this home checks all the boxes for comfort, space, and value. Don’t miss this one!

16. 2026-02-01
    historical
17. 2026-02-01
    listed $299,999 Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-08-04
    price $301,500
20. 2025-06-10
    listed $315,000 Active
21. 2022-08-18
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-08-16
    soldstatus
23. 2022-08-01
    status Pending
24. 2022-06-22
    listed $299,999 Active
25. 2019-03-12
    soldstatus
26. 2019-03-11
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2019-02-22
    status Pending
28. 2019-02-12
    status Option Pending
29. 2019-02-05
    price $199,900
30. 2019-01-18
    listed $209,900 Active
31. 2019-01-17
    historical
32. 2019-01-17
    price $209,900
33. 2019-01-10
    price $214,900
34. 2018-12-06
    price $217,000
35. 2018-12-05
    price $219,000
36. 2018-07-26
    price $219,900
37. 2018-07-10
    price $224,000
38. 2018-06-26
    price $224,900
39. 2018-06-15
    price $227,000
40. 2018-06-06
    price $229,000
41. 2018-05-17
    price $230,900
42. 2018-05-07
    price $232,900
43. 2018-04-03
    listed $234,900 Active
44. 2012-09-28
    soldstatus
45. 2012-09-20
    soldstatus
46. 2012-08-20
    historical
47. 2012-04-07
    listed $164,900
48. 2009-03-05
    soldstatus
49. 2009-01-20
    historical
50. 2008-04-25
    listed $113,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,193 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,636 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,443/yr (+$120/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,253
• − Property taxes: −$4,193
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,960
• Taxable loss: −$6,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $84/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+172.6% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $308,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $301,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-22 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2019-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-02-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-05 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2019-01-18 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2019-01-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-17 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2019-01-10 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2018-12-06 Price Changed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-05 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-26 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2018-07-10 Price Changed $224,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-26 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2018-06-15 Price Changed $227,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-17 Price Changed $230,900 HARMLS
• 2018-05-07 Price Changed $232,900 HARMLS
• 2018-04-03 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2012-09-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-04-07 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2009-03-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-01-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-25 Listed $113,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,193 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.