5661 Asheville Hwy · Mills River, NC 28768

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1964 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller – Priced $71K Under Assessed Value! As-Is Gem in High-Demand Pisgah Forest Address: 5661 Asheville Hwy, Pisgah Forest, NC 28768 Asking Price: $240,000 (an unbelievable $71,000 below the current assessed/market value of $311,970 per Transylvania County records—seller is highly motivated for a quick, as-is sale!) Nestled in the highly sought-after Asheville Highway neighborhood (code 45200) of Pisgah Forest, this property offers exceptional value in one of Western North Carolina's most desirable areas. Surrounded by the natural beauty of Pisgah National Forest, you're just minutes from Brevard, Asheville, world-class hiking, waterfalls, and the Blue Ridge Parkw

Key facts

• Gable roof
• Heat pump
• Single-family home

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• FACE BRICK EXTERIOR
• CONTINUOUS FOOTING FOUNDATION
• GABLE ROOF
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• HEAT PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($146/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.3% in Mills River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#253 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Transylvania County Schools (town): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #79 of 178 in NC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Transylvania County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Transylvania County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $240k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,740 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $510,468
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Gold Mine Ridge Rd	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,424 (-14%)	22mo	$440,000	$309	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,151
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,372
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28768

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,499/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,962

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $80	+0% $12	+5% $-56	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-66	+0% $12	+5% $90	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $73	base $12	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $240,000 Active
3. 2021-09-15
   soldstatus $149,000
4. 2001-01-03
   soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 31.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,499
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$958
• After-tax cash flow: $1,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Transylvania County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704530
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,365
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3938
• State rank: #79 of 178 in NC

Livability — Mills River

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #11185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,555
• Population (ZIP): 6,836

Population outlook (Transylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,142 people
• By 2030: 32,987 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 32,159 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 30,937 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 27,778 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 24,136 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Transylvania

• 2024 margin: R (+12.2) · D 43.3% · R 55.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.2 2020: R+15.7 2016: R+22.5 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.50%
• Current HPI: 237.1205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+65.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $240,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,499 · +36.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.