407 N Rice St · Brinkley, AR 72021

$27,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 1960 0.50 ac lot Est $33k · 17% under ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Most of the floors have just been replaced. Nice size home for retirement age or new couple. Lots of extras to see

Key facts

• Detached
• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• DETACHED
• RECENTLY REPLACED FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#349 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brinkley School District (town): math 12% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #225 of 238 in AR (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 99% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $532 of equity ($190 loan paydown + $342 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.07%
• DSCR: 5.41
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $33,280
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 S New York Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,089 (-15%)	18mo	$28,000	$26	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $41,336
• Equity at exit: $9,738

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.17×
• Total profit: $93,725
• Equity at exit: $13,217

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72021

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $224/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $221

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-03-05
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-02-15
   soldstatus $25,000
3. 2024-12-13
   price $27,500
4. 2024-09-12
   listed $45,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $224 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $224 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$224
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $7,633
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $5,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brinkley School District
• NCES district ID: 0503630
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $30,745
• Composite: 10.27/100
• National rank: #9792
• State rank: #225 of 238 in AR

Livability — Brinkley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #21921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brinkley, AR
• Population (ZIP): 3,583

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,269 people
• By 2030: 5,738 · -8.5%
• By 2040: 4,856 · -22.5%
• By 2050: 4,205 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 3,448 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 3,278 · -47.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 43% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.2% · R 56.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+3.7 2012: R+0.1 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 83.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-05 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $27,500 CARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listed $45,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $224 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.