5227 N Koerner Rd · Peoria, IL 61615

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1930 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * COMING SOON * *

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1930; 2.00-acre lot
• Construction: Shingle roof; Not new construction
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Lot dimensions approximately 660 x 131

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Hardwood in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: One fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($840/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.5% in Peoria — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valeska Hinton Early Ch Ed Ctr (495 students, 0% FRL); Reservoir Gifted School (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A+, #2 of 665 statewide, top 0%, 277 students, 0% FRL); Richwoods High School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #152 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 1,580 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+44 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Peoria SD 150 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,778 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5807 N Koerner Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	940 (+0%)	17mo	$66,250	$70	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,864
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,681
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61615

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $112	+0% $70	+5% $28	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $19	+0% $70	+5% $121	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $108	base $70	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5605 N Withershin Pt Unit 1 Peoria, IL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,335	$1.33	15d	1	0.44mi
5605 N Withershin Pt Peoria, IL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,335	$1.33	15d	1	0.44mi
5711 W Ridgecrest Dr Peoria, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	15d	8	0.44mi
5505 N Frostwood Pkwy Peoria, IL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,490	$1.45	15d	1	1.27mi
6900 N Summershade Cir Peoria, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$1,340	$1.61	15d	3	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $149,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 21-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,061/yr (+$88/mo · 82.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$409
• After-tax cash flow: $1,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria SD 150
• NCES district ID: 1731230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 10.92/100
• National rank: #9751
• State rank: #554 of 620 in IL

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #5096

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Peoria County · 120,495 people
• City population: 114,670
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,523
• Household income: $79,817
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 833.0

Population outlook (Peoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 183,007 people
• By 2030: 179,643 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 171,782 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 163,508 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 140,178 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 114,493 · -37.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 10% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Peoria

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 46.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 4.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.7 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.30%
• Current HPI: 166.9745
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $149,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,281 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.