2851 Potter Dr · Mobile, AL 36606

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,329 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1990 0.26 ac lot $75/sqft · 32% below area Est $148k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’re looking for your next renovation project or an investment opportunity, this is it! This property is a fixer-upper and is being sold AS-IS. It needs work inside but offers a great foundation for the right buyer with vision and experience. Located in a quiet neighborhood off Sage Ave., it is conveniently located close to many stores and restaurants. It also has a view of the neighborhood park! Come see this home!! It has strong bones and could be transformed into a fantastic rental, resale, or personal residence with the right updates. Seller's had new roof installed 2 years ago.

Key facts

• Quiet neighborhood
• 0.26 acre lot
• Listed 78 days

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• VIEW OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.91%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,015
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -32.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1841 Woodcock Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,327 (-0%)	0mo	$195,000	$147	73
1833 Woodcock Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,317 (-1%)	1mo	$195,000	$148	71
2756 Jennings Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-2%)	0mo	$215,000	$165	70
1813 Woodcock St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,269 (-4%)	1mo	$195,000	$154	65
109 Esplanade Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,337 (+1%)	0mo	$120,000	$90	61
3051 Baronne St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,451 (+9%)	1mo	$190,000	$131	56
25 Chadwick Dr W	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,476 (+11%)	1mo	$138,000	$93	55
2757 S Sherwood Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,510 (+14%)	0mo	$218,000	$144	54
2806 Exter Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+12%)	1mo	$205,000	$138	54
2656 Foreman Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+13%)	2mo	$145,000	$97	49
2904 Cottage Hill Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+5%)	0mo	$124,500	$89	49
160 Emogene Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+14%)	2mo	$195,000	$128	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $16,317
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $64,884
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36606

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $859/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $807

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2855 Potter Dr Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,050	$0.93	43d	1	0.04mi
2861 Potter Dr Unit 1043844P Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,492	$1.67	21d	1	0.07mi
2861 Ralston Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1617	$1,650	$1.02	43d	1	0.09mi
168 W Collins St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	968	$725	$0.75	21d	1	0.14mi
150 Dunn Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,250	$0.86	21d	1	0.14mi
2859 Brierwood Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	13d	1	0.21mi
3060 Emogene St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	13d	1	0.37mi
315 Hadrian St Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1843	$1,800	$0.98	43d	1	0.39mi
2656 Pathway Pl Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0	778	$949	$1.22	13d	9	0.53mi
200 S Florida St Unit 101 Mobile, AL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,375	$1.20	21d	1	0.55mi
2500 Dauphinwood Dr Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1250	$980	$0.78	13d	19	0.58mi
418 Durande Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,350	$0.93	13d	1	0.63mi
120 Paris Ave Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,150	$1.09	21d	1	0.66mi
2507 Taylor Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,495	$1.22	13d	1	0.71mi
2604 Dauphin St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,072	$1.13	43d	2	0.71mi
2604 Dauphin St #210 Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	21d	1	0.71mi
3252 Orleans St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	43d	1	0.72mi
2503 Richard Ave Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	928	$805	$0.87	13d	1	0.73mi
461 Magnolia Rd Unit A Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	989	$825	$0.83	43d	1	0.77mi
505 Bel Air Blvd Mobile, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,274	$1.30	13d	16	0.83mi
104 Ellinor St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,275	$1.42	21d	1	0.97mi
107 Grand Blvd Mobile, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	21d	1	1.03mi
156 Hemley Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,195	$1.28	43d	1	1.15mi
751 Farnell Ln Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	1.18mi
713 Iris Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1617	$1,300	$0.80	21d	1	1.20mi
209 S Fulton St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.5	1255	$1,750	$1.39	21d	1	1.29mi
151 Du Rhu Dr Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,270	$2.16	13d	12	1.31mi
182 Williams St Unit 1043570P Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1399	$2,476	$1.77	13d	1	1.32mi
615 Mohawk St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,500	$1.28	43d	1	1.32mi
562 Clarke St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,025	$0.97	43d	1	1.34mi
618 Clarke St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1427	$1,200	$0.84	43d	1	1.35mi
146 Yester Oaks Dr Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1203	$1,280	$1.06	13d	12	1.40mi
3661 Airport Blvd Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1187	$1,338	$1.13	13d	24	1.41mi
3171 Pleasant Valley Rd Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	875	$800	$0.91	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   If you’re looking for your next renovation project or an investment opportunity, this is it! This property is a fixer-upper and is being sold AS-IS. It needs work inside but offers a great foundation for the right buyer with vision and experience. Located in a quiet neighborhood off Sage Ave., it is conveniently located close to many stores and restaurants. It also has a view of the neighborhood park! Come see this home!! It has strong bones and could be transformed into a fantastic rental, resale, or personal residence with the right updates. Seller's had new roof installed 2 years ago.

2. 2025-10-14
   status Pending 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   If you’re looking for your next renovation project or an investment opportunity, this is it! This property is a fixer-upper and is being sold AS-IS. It needs work inside but offers a great foundation for the right buyer with vision and experience. Located in a quiet neighborhood off Sage Ave., it is conveniently located close to many stores and restaurants. It also has a view of the neighborhood park! Come see this home!! It has strong bones and could be transformed into a fantastic rental, resale, or personal residence with the right updates. Seller's had new roof installed 2 years ago.

3. 2025-09-23
   listed $100,000 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   If you’re looking for your next renovation project or an investment opportunity, this is it! This property is a fixer-upper and is being sold AS-IS. It needs work inside but offers a great foundation for the right buyer with vision and experience. Located in a quiet neighborhood off Sage Ave., it is conveniently located close to many stores and restaurants. It also has a view of the neighborhood park! Come see this home!! It has strong bones and could be transformed into a fantastic rental, resale, or personal residence with the right updates. Seller's had new roof installed 2 years ago.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$859
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,006
• After-tax cash flow: $4,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,728
• Household income: $51,303
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 999.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Scottish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.19%
• Current HPI: 145.9025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2025-10-14 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2025-09-23 Listed $100,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $859 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.