27 Las Palmas Rd · Las Palmas, TX 78076

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1990 10,450 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Spacious Bedrooms – Plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. 2 Full Baths . Carport – Covered parking for vehicles, plus extra driveway space. Inviting Living Area Kitchen – Ample cabinet space and great flow for cooking. Large Yard – Perfect for entertaining, pets, or future additions.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Large yard
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,555 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Benavides El (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #4,250 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 61 students, 88% FRL); Zapata Middle (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 784 students, 83% FRL); Zapata H S (math 25% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,034 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 70% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,250
• Equity at exit: $59,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $75,503
• Equity at exit: $89,333

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,222

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $202	+0% $162	+5% $123	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $106	+0% $162	+5% $219	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $198	base $162	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 183 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 182 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 181 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 180 DOM
18. 2026-01-20
    price $139,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    4 Spacious Bedrooms – Plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. 2 Full Baths . Carport – Covered parking for vehicles, plus extra driveway space. Inviting Living Area Kitchen – Ample cabinet space and great flow for cooking. Large Yard – Perfect for entertaining, pets, or future additions.

19. 2025-12-02
    listed $165,000 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    4 Spacious Bedrooms – Plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. 2 Full Baths . Carport – Covered parking for vehicles, plus extra driveway space. Inviting Living Area Kitchen – Ample cabinet space and great flow for cooking. Large Yard – Perfect for entertaining, pets, or future additions.

20. 2020-03-17
    soldstatus
21. 2020-03-10
    soldstatus 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Las Palmas Subd. - 4BR/2BA, sunroom, huge attached triple carport, one full lot plus partial second lot, corner property. Spacious living, kitchen, built-in appliances, dining nook, built-in hutch, plenty of storage and counters. Large bedrooms, master has sitting area, Jacuzzi tub. Metal roof, circular drive, brick BBQ patio, storage container and storage bldg. This secluded location is a great place to relax and refresh yourself. Only a short drive from townsite! Possible owner finance!

22. 2018-06-09
    historical
23. 2018-03-27
    price $120,000
24. 2017-09-28
    listed $128,900 Active
25. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus
26. 2007-05-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$67
• After-tax cash flow: $2,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Las Palmas

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1555
• US rank: #26545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Palmas, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $139,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-10 Sold (MLS) — LAOR
• 2018-06-09 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2018-03-27 Price Changed $120,000 CBMLS
• 2017-09-28 Listed $128,900 CBMLS
• 2007-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,145 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.