3488 N Church St · Packwaukee, WI 53949

$69,995

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 776 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1900 Fair condition 3,049 sqft lot Est $137k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in the Town of Packwaukee (Montello area)

Exterior

• Utilities: Municipal sewer; Well water; Natural gas
• Home design: 1.5-story single-family home; Estimated finished above-grade living area about 776 sq ft
• Construction: Assessor/public record for year built; Slab foundation (no basement)
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Storage building on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level (approx. 9 x 11); Second bedroom on the upper level (approx. 12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; No en-suite bathroom in the master bedroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: High-speed internet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#520 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Montello School District (rural): math 29% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #280 of 342 in WI (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Lane Community School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #319 of 1,041 statewide, top 34%, 268 students, 47% FRL); Montello Junior/Senior High (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #385 of 483 statewide, top 82%, 256 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Marquette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marquette County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,945 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,352
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3488 N Church St	0.00mi	2/1.0	776 (0%)	1mo	$69,995	$90	99
W6013 Stockyard Rd	0.37mi	2/1.0	832 (+7%)	21mo	$147,000	$177	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $274
• Equity at exit: $10,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $15,232
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53949

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $69,995

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,499
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   historical Offer Show
3. 2026-04-12
   listed $69,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$274
• After-tax cash flow: $1,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate exterior repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through painting and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered and discolored
• Minor Landscaping — Sparse and overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Sparse and overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montello School District
• NCES district ID: 5509870
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,960
• Composite: 25.62/100
• National rank: #7408
• State rank: #280 of 342 in WI

Livability — Packwaukee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #13099

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Packwaukee, WI
• City population: 179
• Population (ZIP): 6,291

Population outlook (Marquette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,049 people
• By 2030: 13,362 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 11,850 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 10,519 · -25.1%
• By 2075: 8,457 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 7,077 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marquette

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.6) · D 34.6% · R 64.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.9pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -29.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.6 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+24.4 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.86%
• Current HPI: 229.6668
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — SCWMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — SCWMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $69,995 SCWMLS