4758 W Lynn Dr · East Milton, FL 32583

$354,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.34 ac lot Est $312k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNDER CONSTRUCTION The AVALON..large open living room with vaulted ceiling and spacious kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops with an oversized island, stainless steel appliance package which includes Range, Microwave and Dishwasher. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling with ceiling fan and large walk in closet. Step into the master bath to find double vanity, garden tub and separate shower. This home also includes a programmable thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Taexx Pest Control, hurricane fabric shield window protection, and much more. PHOTOS OF SIMILAR HOME. COLORS/SELECTIONS VARY

Key facts

• Widened driveway
• Whole-house gutters
• Privacy fence

Tags

• PRIVACY FENCE
• WHOLE-HOUSE GUTTERS
• WINDOW BLINDS
• WIDENED DRIVEWAY
• GARDEN SHED
• OVERHEAD GARAGE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Not new construction; Lot is approximately 0.344 acres
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electric with copper wiring; Public sewer available (also lists septic tank); Cable available
• Home design: Resale single-family home; One story; Slab foundation; Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation; Shingle roof; One level
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; Privacy fencing; Paved road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Pantry; Built-in microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Double pane windows; Blinds; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $354k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.6% in East Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 822 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,439/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 122% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.70%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4736 W Lynn Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-9%)	3mo	$310,200	$203	80
4803 N Lynn Rd	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+9%)	1mo	$340,000	$186	78
4714 W Lynn Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-9%)	3mo	$309,900	$202	76
4730 W Lynn Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-12%)	5mo	$299,000	$203	71
4637 Carl Booker Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+4%)	4mo	$537,500	$309	64
4774 Carl Booker Rd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+10%)	2mo	$345,000	$186	63
4935 Carl Booker Rd	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (+8%)	3mo	$275,000	$151	53
4702 Carl Booker Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (+9%)	17mo	$302,900	$166	51
4826 Carl Booker Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+10%)	17mo	$302,900	$163	49
4613 Carl Booker Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,870 (+11%)	3mo	$329,000	$176	49
4826 Carl Booker Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+10%)	17mo	$302,900	$163	46
4655 Carl Booker Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,895 (+13%)	3mo	$369,000	$195	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-11,639
• Equity at exit: $52,783

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $64,094
• Equity at exit: $30,607

Cash invested: $99,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 822
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,856
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $915/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,633

Max offer price $354,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $837	-5% $736	+0% $636	+5% $536	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $500	+0% $636	+5% $772	+10% $908
Rate	-1.0pp $815	-0.5pp $726	base $636	+0.5pp $545	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,500
• Closing costs: $10,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8795 Florida 87 Fl -87 Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1911	$5,000	$2.62	25d	1	0.20mi
4661 Carl Booker Rd Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,400	$1.28	25d	1	0.43mi
4205 Elvis Presley Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,500	$0.87	25d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $354,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $354,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $354,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $354,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $357,500 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $357,500 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $357,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $357,500 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $357,500 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $357,500 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $357,500 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $357,500 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $357,500 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $357,500 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,500 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,500 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $357,500 Active
18. 2025-11-24
    historical
19. 2025-08-26
    price $357,500
20. 2025-07-18
    price $360,000
21. 2025-02-27
    listed $363,900 Active
22. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus $326,525 Sold 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION The AVALON..large open living room with vaulted ceiling and spacious kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops with an oversized island, stainless steel appliance package which includes Range, Microwave and Dishwasher. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling with ceiling fan and large walk in closet. Step into the master bath to find double vanity, garden tub and separate shower. This home also includes a programmable thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Taexx Pest Control, hurricane fabric shield window protection, and much more. PHOTOS OF SIMILAR HOME. COLORS/SELECTIONS VARY

23. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus $326,525 Sold

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION The AVALON..large open living room with vaulted ceiling and spacious kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops with an oversized island, stainless steel appliance package which includes Range, Microwave and Dishwasher. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling with ceiling fan and large walk in closet. Step into the master bath to find double vanity, garden tub and separate shower. This home also includes a programmable thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Taexx Pest Control, hurricane fabric shield window protection, and much more. PHOTOS OF SIMILAR HOME. COLORS/SELECTIONS VARY

24. 2024-01-23
    status Pending 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION The AVALON..large open living room with vaulted ceiling and spacious kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops with an oversized island, stainless steel appliance package which includes Range, Microwave and Dishwasher. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling with ceiling fan and large walk in closet. Step into the master bath to find double vanity, garden tub and separate shower. This home also includes a programmable thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Taexx Pest Control, hurricane fabric shield window protection, and much more. PHOTOS OF SIMILAR HOME. COLORS/SELECTIONS VARY

25. 2024-01-22
    status Pending
26. 2023-10-23
    listed $326,525 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION The AVALON..large open living room with vaulted ceiling and spacious kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops with an oversized island, stainless steel appliance package which includes Range, Microwave and Dishwasher. The master bedroom features a trey ceiling with ceiling fan and large walk in closet. Step into the master bath to find double vanity, garden tub and separate shower. This home also includes a programmable thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Taexx Pest Control, hurricane fabric shield window protection, and much more. PHOTOS OF SIMILAR HOME. COLORS/SELECTIONS VARY

27. 2023-08-17
    listed $326,525 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,938 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,023/yr (+$169/mo · 221.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,830
• − Property taxes: −$915
• − Insurance: −$1,770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,301
• − Management: −$3,301
• − Depreciation: −$10,298
• Taxable income: $1,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$443
• After-tax cash flow: $7,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Avalon model home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a spacious and open layout with modern updates, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add a small outdoor lighting system — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor lighting system — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+9.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $357,500 PARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $357,500 PARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $360,000 PARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $363,900 PARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $326,525 NAMLS
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $326,525 PARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-01-22 Pending — NAMLS
• 2023-10-23 Listed $326,525 PARMLS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $326,525 NAMLS

Property tax history

+69.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $915 · -64.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.