300 Thornton Dr #4 · Crest, CA 92021

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Manufactured public records · 178 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $361k · 14% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated at the end of a private road in a gated community, this elevated hilltop retreat offers rare privacy, sweeping city, mountain and valley views, all set in a peaceful, park-like setting. This three bedroom manufactured home is located in a private, gated 27-space community in the highly desirable Crest neighborhood. Positioned at the very end of the road, the property offers exceptional privacy with gated parking for approximately 3 - 4 Vehicles, depending on size. The elevated setting provides breathtaking city, mountain and valley views from the living room, primary bedroom, guest bedroom, and front yard. The exterior offers a serene, park-like atmosphere featuring natural boulder

Key facts

• Gated community
• Private road
• Sweeping city views

Tags

• PRIVATE ROAD
• GATED COMMUNITY
• ELEVATED HILLTOP RETREAT
• SWEEPING CITY VIEWS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• VALLEY VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Gate with code required for property access (directions indicate gated entry)
• HOA & community: Crest Sky Lodge South (building name); Subdivision: Crest

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link and block fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range / Oven; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Fire sprinkler system
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#954 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,251/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.42%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,306
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 La Cresta Heights Rd Spc 12	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-9%)	0mo	$330,000	$242	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-11,900
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $14,020
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $929	-5% $842	+0% $754	+5% $666	+10% $578
Rent	-10% $497	-5% $625	+0% $754	+5% $882	+10% $1,011
Rate	-1.0pp $910	-0.5pp $833	base $754	+0.5pp $674	+1.0pp $592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 Lento Ln El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5	1176	$3,100	$2.64	0d	1	0.48mi
151 Bonita Pl El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1630	$4,295	$2.63	0d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $310,000 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $310,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $310,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-03-14
   price $310,000
9. 2025-12-12
   listed $320,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,637/yr (+$136/mo · 227.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 2 d/yr ≥98°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,121
• − Management: −$3,121
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $4,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$989
• After-tax cash flow: $8,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Crest

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #954
• US rank: #24448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crest, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $310,000 SDMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $320,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2013): $719 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.