265 Hummel Ave · Southold, NY 11971

$649,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 1940 0.50 ac lot $583/sqft · 27% below area Est $888k · 27% under ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 265 Hummel Ave in Southold, a charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom gem that embodies the perfect balance of comfort and potential. This property is a blank canvas for your imagination, boasting a full attic that presents an exciting opportunity for expansion, allowing you to customize the loft space to your unique needs and taste. The home is situated in a vibrant community that thrives on connectivity and convenience. Just moments from your doorstep, you’ll find the local bus and train station, making your commute or weekend trips a breeze. Additionally, this location places you in close proximity to a variety of local shops, offering everything from everyday essentials to unique finds. Schedule your showing today and do not run the risk of missing out on this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• Full attic
• 0.5 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• FULL ATTIC
• LOCAL BUS AND TRAIN STATION
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LOCAL SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $563k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $427k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $427k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $427,171 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $888,163
• List price: $649,000
• Delta: -26.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Founders Path	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+8%)	18mo	$831,000	$693	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-136,349
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-159,772
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,225/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,885

Max offer price $563,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-117	-5% $-301	+0% $-485	+5% $-668	+10% $-852
Rent	-10% $-822	-5% $-653	+0% $-485	+5% $-316	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-158	-0.5pp $-320	base $-485	+0.5pp $-653	+1.0pp $-824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1235 Youngs Ave Southold, NY	2.0	1.5	1462	$4,000	$2.74	44d	1	0.15mi
145 Founders Path Southold, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	44d	1	0.44mi
310 Old Shipyard Ln Southold, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	44d	1	0.55mi
2845 Hobart Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$22,000	$16.92	44d	1	0.79mi
8515 Soundview Ave Southold, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$4,000	$5.33	44d	1	1.29mi
8415 Soundview Ave Southold, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$5,000	$5.56	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   price $649,000 811-char remark

   Show marketing remark (811 chars)

   Welcome to 265 Hummel Ave in Southold, a charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom gem that embodies the perfect balance of comfort and potential. This property is a blank canvas for your imagination, boasting a full attic that presents an exciting opportunity for expansion, allowing you to customize the loft space to your unique needs and taste. The home is situated in a vibrant community that thrives on connectivity and convenience. Just moments from your doorstep, you’ll find the local bus and train station, making your commute or weekend trips a breeze. Additionally, this location places you in close proximity to a variety of local shops, offering everything from everyday essentials to unique finds. Schedule your showing today and do not run the risk of missing out on this fantastic opportunity!

2. 2026-02-26
   price $699,000 811-char remark

   Show marketing remark (811 chars)

   Welcome to 265 Hummel Ave in Southold, a charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom gem that embodies the perfect balance of comfort and potential. This property is a blank canvas for your imagination, boasting a full attic that presents an exciting opportunity for expansion, allowing you to customize the loft space to your unique needs and taste. The home is situated in a vibrant community that thrives on connectivity and convenience. Just moments from your doorstep, you’ll find the local bus and train station, making your commute or weekend trips a breeze. Additionally, this location places you in close proximity to a variety of local shops, offering everything from everyday essentials to unique finds. Schedule your showing today and do not run the risk of missing out on this fantastic opportunity!

3. 2025-12-09
   listed $749,000 Active 811-char remark

   Show marketing remark (811 chars)

   Welcome to 265 Hummel Ave in Southold, a charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom gem that embodies the perfect balance of comfort and potential. This property is a blank canvas for your imagination, boasting a full attic that presents an exciting opportunity for expansion, allowing you to customize the loft space to your unique needs and taste. The home is situated in a vibrant community that thrives on connectivity and convenience. Just moments from your doorstep, you’ll find the local bus and train station, making your commute or weekend trips a breeze. Additionally, this location places you in close proximity to a variety of local shops, offering everything from everyday essentials to unique finds. Schedule your showing today and do not run the risk of missing out on this fantastic opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,225 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,596 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,372/yr (+$364/mo · 196.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$2,225
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,101
• − Management: −$4,101
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$17,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,235
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,225 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.